Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 11:15 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played LDWLW

VS— Compare

Feyenoord 1st · 23 pts · 9 played WWWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord are slight favourites.

Feyenoord are the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Heerenveen have 7.7 days of rest, Feyenoord 4.6 and have to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days7.7 · 4.6Matches / 14d1 · 3

Heerenveen26%

Draw22%

Feyenoord51%

Expected goals 1.41 – 2.03

Heerenveen27%

Draw26%

Feyenoord47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Heerenveen26%

Draw22%

Feyenoord51%

Expected goals 1.41 – 2.03

Heerenveen20%

Draw20%

Feyenoord60%

Expected goals 1.26 – 2.28

Heerenveen26%

Draw23%

Feyenoord51%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.94

Over 2.5 67% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Heerenveen

Feyenoord

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

36 AttackIn forecast 76

40 DefenceIn forecast 61

39 Form indexContext 92

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack−27%

Defense risk+51%

Feyenoord

Attack−9%

Defense risk+4%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Feyenoord

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.44

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 2.90

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

67% Scored inContext 100%

44% Clean sheetsContext 44%

15.11 ShotsContext 21.33

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.22

40% On target shareContext 39%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 15.00

66% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.83

14.56 Shots allowedContext 11.11

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

4.44 BlocksContext 3.25

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

73% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

493 PassesContext 490

421 Accurate passesContext 428

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.22

8.67 FoulsContext 8.78

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.22

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.42

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.98

70% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.90 ShotsContext 18.70

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

40% On target shareContext 40%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

66% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 18%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.71

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.70 BlocksContext 3.67

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

69% Save rateContext 62%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

498 PassesContext 473

425 Accurate passesContext 410

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.06

8.40 FoulsContext 10.20

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen LDWLW

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Feyenoord WWWWW

Rest4.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel151 km174 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Telstar4–32.1 xPts
W14 OctH · Como3–21.6 xPts
W10 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–01.8 xPts
W20 SepH · Utrecht5–02.3 xPts
W13 SepA · PEC Zwolle7–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct	4.6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	174 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	13.4	13.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct

1B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

8N. Courtens 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

Feyenoord Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Telstar (A) 4–3, 17 Oct

1T. Ernst(G)

35Mika Màrmol 24T. Kraaijeveld 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read

34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël

27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa

19Nacho Ferri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen No reported absences

Feyenoord No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Feyenoord+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.00

Feyenoord · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 A
Telstar	D 0–0 H	W 4–3 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 2–3 H	W 2–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 0–2 H	W 7–0 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	12 of 12 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins1 draws3 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

11 Jan 2026Heerenveen2–2Feyenoord
13 Sep 2025Feyenoord1–0Heerenveen
18 May 2025Heerenveen2–0Feyenoord
23 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–0Heerenveen
16 Sep 2023Feyenoord6–1Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	3.44
Conceded per game	1.22	1.11
Match goals	2.89	4.56	3.45
Over 1.5	78%	89%
Over 2.5	56%	78%	67%
Over 3.5	56%	78%
Both teams scored	33%	56%	66%
Clean sheets	44%	44%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	9	9

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	3.40
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.60	5.10	3.45
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	90%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	6.22
Corners conceded	4.89	4.11
Match total	10.00	10.33	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.22
Opponent cards	1.33	1.44
Match total	2.33	2.66	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	11% 1/9

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.20
Corners conceded	5.20	3.70
Match total	10.40	8.90	10.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.30
Opponent cards	1.20	1.40
Match total	2.20	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.