AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 15:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 2nd · 20 pts · 9 played WDWLD

VS— Compare

Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played DDWWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar are slight favourites.

AZ Alkmaar are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 33). AZ Alkmaar have 2.8 days of rest, Groningen 7 and have to travel 138 km.

Away travel138 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

AZ Alkmaar57%

Draw21%

Groningen22%

Expected goals 2.28 – 1.37

AZ Alkmaar53%

Draw25%

Groningen22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

AZ Alkmaar57%

Draw21%

Groningen22%

Expected goals 2.28 – 1.37

AZ Alkmaar49%

Draw22%

Groningen29%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.54

AZ Alkmaar56%

Draw22%

Groningen23%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.30

Over 2.5 71% Both score 67% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Groningen 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Groningen

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

52 AttackIn forecast 41

49 DefenceIn forecast 21

43 Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack−3%

Defense risk+10%

Groningen

Attack−17%

Defense risk+25%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Groningen

2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.44

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.11

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.21

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

89% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 11%

17.33 ShotsContext 14.78

6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.78

38% On target shareContext 39%

12.38 Shots in the boxContext 10.38

68% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 17%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.00 Shots allowedContext 15.33

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

2.88 BlocksContext 4.13

1.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

63% Save rateContext 60%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

536 PassesContext 434

460 Accurate passesContext 355

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.89 FoulsContext 8.89

11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.11

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.90 ShotsContext 13.80

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

37% On target shareContext 38%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

65% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 16%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.70 Shots allowedContext 15.00

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

2.89 BlocksContext 4.00

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

68% Save rateContext 60%

59% PossessionIn forecast 49%

543 PassesContext 425

466 Accurate passesContext 345

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.40 FoulsContext 9.60

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar LWLWD

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km60 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Groningen DDWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	60 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1E. Vaessen(G)

33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders

24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge

11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff

9B. Willumsson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar No reported absences

Groningen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Groningen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.75

Groningen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles	W 5–2 H	D 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 A	L 2–3 H
Utrecht	W 4–1 A	W 2–1 H
ADO Den Haag	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 A
Points	12 of 12 · 3.00 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws1 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

22 Mar 2026Groningen3–0AZ Alkmaar
10 Aug 2025AZ Alkmaar4–1Groningen
11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar3–0Groningen
25 Aug 2024Groningen0–0AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	2.44
Conceded per game	1.11	2.11
Match goals	3.33	4.56	3.65
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	44%	89%	71%
Over 3.5	44%	67%
Both teams scored	56%	89%	67%
Clean sheets	33%	11%
Failed to score	11%	0%
Games	9	9

	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.40
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	3.20	4.40	3.65
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	71%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	90%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	4.89
Corners conceded	3.67	4.56
Match total	11.67	9.45	10.39
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.00
Opponent cards	1.44	1.44
Match total	2.66	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	11% 1/9

	AZ Alkmaar	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	7.30	4.89
Corners conceded	3.60	4.56
Match total	10.90	9.45	10.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.30
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	3.60	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.