Eredivisie Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 22 · 13:30 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
AZ Alkmaar 2nd · 20 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel81 kmRest days14.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Sparta Rotterdam—%
Draw—%
AZ Alkmaar—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 47
32 AttackIn forecast 52
17 DefenceIn forecast 49
20 Form indexContext 43
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—
Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.22
2.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.34
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.12
78% Scored inContext 89%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.56 ShotsContext 17.33
6.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56
35% On target shareContext 38%
10.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.38
69% Box shareContext 68%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.50
17.00 Shots allowedContext 9.00
5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
4.78 BlocksContext 2.88
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89
65% Save rateContext 63%
45% PossessionIn forecast 59%
380 PassesContext 536
308 Accurate passesContext 460
81% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.93
10.11 FoulsContext 11.89
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.22
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
80% Scored inContext 80%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.80 ShotsContext 16.90
6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
34% On target shareContext 37%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
70% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 12%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.20
16.90 Shots allowedContext 9.70
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.60 BlocksContext 2.89
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30
62% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 59%
384 PassesContext 543
311 Accurate passesContext 466
81% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.87
10.10 FoulsContext 12.40
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
  • D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
  • L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
  • D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts
AZ Alkmaar
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel81 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Nov13.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 30 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one6.34.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes
11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld
AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir
9M. Meerdink

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sparta Rotterdam Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AZ Alkmaar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-2-2
Scored
1.60
Conceded
2.40
AZ Alkmaar · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-1-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentSparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
Willem II W 3–2 H D 1–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles D 3–3 A W 5–2 H
Heerenveen L 0–4 H W 3–2 A
Utrecht D 3–3 H W 4–1 A
Telstar W 3–1 A W 1–0 H
Feyenoord L 0–1 H L 0–2 A
Points8 of 18 · 1.33 per game13 of 18 · 2.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws4 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%
  • 22 Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar3–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 2 Nov 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–1AZ Alkmaar
  • 26 Jan 2025AZ Alkmaar1–2Sparta Rotterdam
  • 24 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2AZ Alkmaar
  • 17 Sep 2023AZ Alkmaar2–0Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Sparta RotterdamAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 1.782.22
Conceded per game 2.441.11
Match goals 4.223.33
Over 1.5 89%89%
Over 2.5 89%44%
Over 3.5 78%44%
Both teams scored 78%56%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 22%11%
Games99
Sparta RotterdamAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 1.802.00
Conceded per game 2.501.20
Match goals 4.303.20
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%50%
Over 3.5 80%40%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sparta RotterdamAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won5.678.00
Corners conceded6.893.67
Match total12.5611.6710.39
Over 8.589% 8/978% 7/9
Over 9.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 10.567% 6/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.671.22
Opponent cards1.111.44
Match total2.782.662.77
Over 3.522% 2/933% 3/9
Over 4.511% 1/922% 2/9
Sparta RotterdamAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won5.607.30
Corners conceded6.403.60
Match total12.0010.9010.39
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 10.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.901.70
Opponent cards1.001.90
Match total2.903.602.77
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sparta Rotterdam9 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 4 61-75
3 5 76-90
AZ Alkmaar9 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 2 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
2 1 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
3 5 61-75
4 5 76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
NEC Nijmegen PSV Eindhoven Nov 2115:30 Utrecht Cambuur Nov 2117:45 Feyenoord Excelsior Nov 2117:45 Groningen Heerenveen Nov 2120:00 Telstar PEC Zwolle Nov 2120:00 Twente Willem II Nov 2211:15 Ajax ADO Den Haag Nov 2213:30 Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar Nov 2213:30 GO Ahead Eagles Fortuna Sittard Nov 2215:45