Hamburger SV
Attack−8%
Defense risk+19%
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV were without N. Remberg and A. Grønbæk. VfB Stuttgart were without M. Mittelstädt. Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.8 and had to travel 533 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel533 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV24%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart54%
Hamburger SV25%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Hamburger SV26%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Hamburger SV18%
Draw20%
VfB Stuttgart63%
Hamburger SV25%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 69
Team strength
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
37
AttackIn forecast
70
43
DefenceIn forecast
58
50
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack+13%
Defense risk−25%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
40%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
15.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
56%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
18.20
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
5.00
BlocksContext
5.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
55%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
353
PassesContext
482
276
Accurate passesContext
391
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.44
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.60
FoulsContext
10.00
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
15.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
60%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.10
15.80
Shots allowedContext
16.40
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.00
BlocksContext
5.33
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
65%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
351
PassesContext
480
277
Accurate passesContext
397
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.60
FoulsContext
11.10
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
LLLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
VfB Stuttgart
WLLWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel533 km1,833 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Form 65 · 9 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 968 km | 1,833 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
33S. Bornauw
24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke
28M. Muheim
4B. Nadir
5M. Adeline
3D. Møller Wolfe
15Y. Poulsen
20Fábio Vieira
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −52.5% · Defence line −21.9% of weighted minutes
- MID N. Remberg Starter 6.79 Att −15.2% Def −5.1%
- MID A. Grønbæk Starter 7.01 Att −11.6% Def −3.9%
- DEF Z. El Ouahdi Starter 6.03 Def −7.8%
- MID A. Sambi Lokonga Starter 6.92 Att −11.1% Def −3.7%
- ATT P. Daka Rotation 6.52 Att −7.5%
- MID B. Jatta Rotation 6.56 Att −3.4% Def −1.1%
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −5.2% · Defence line −14.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Mittelstädt Starter 7.18 Def −12.7%
- MID N. Nartey Rotation 6.80 Att −1.9% Def −1.5%
- ATT Tiago Tomás Rotation 6.71 Att −3.2%
- DEF A. Al Dakhil Depth 6.39 Def −0.3%
- DEF D. Zagadou Depth 7.30 Def −0.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-1.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+2.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart4–0Hamburger SV
- 30 Nov 2025Hamburger SV2–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.40 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.40 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.10 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.46
Red cards0.20league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 17%
Fouls22.8league 22.6
Penalties0.32league 0.13
Home wins43%league 52%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Oct 25H · FSV Mainz 054–02
VfB Stuttgart8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W14 Feb 26H · 1.FC Köln3–14
- W14 Dec 25A · Werder Bremen4–00
- L23 Aug 25A · Union Berlin1–24
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–22
- W26 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV5 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart5 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
1
0-15
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
