Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 29th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Shakhtar Donetsk 11th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter are clear favourites.

Inter are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 58). Inter are without Lautaro Martínez. Inter have 4.1 days of rest, Shakhtar Donetsk 7 and have to travel 1,676 km. Weather to note: heavy rain, thunderstorm.

Away travel1,676 kmRest days4.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Inter70%

Draw16%

Shakhtar Donetsk13%

Expected goals 2.79 – 1.19

Inter63%

Draw22%

Shakhtar Donetsk15%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.88

Inter71%

Draw16%

Shakhtar Donetsk13%

Expected goals 2.81 – 1.18

Inter62%

Draw19%

Shakhtar Donetsk19%

Expected goals 2.49 – 1.34

Inter69%

Draw17%

Shakhtar Donetsk14%

Expected goals 2.65 – 1.15

Over 2.5 76% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

16°CThunderstorm

Precipitation 86%
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 93%

Heavy rain Thunderstorm

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Inter 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Inter

Shakhtar Donetsk

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

91 AttackIn forecast 54

73 DefenceIn forecast 62

76 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack−12%

Defense risk+9%

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

24.00 ShotsContext 10.00

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

33% On target shareContext 30%

16.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

66% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 20%

3.00 OffsidesContext —

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

64% Save rateContext 60%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

533 PassesContext 418

488 Accurate passesContext 358

92% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.63

8.00 FoulsContext 15.50

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.66

100% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

21.00 ShotsContext 12.88

7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 31%

14.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

70% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.80

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.38

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.80 BlocksContext 2.38

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

64% Save rateContext 59%

61% PossessionIn forecast 56%

586 PassesContext 455

529 Accurate passesContext 400

90% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.78

8.70 FoulsContext 11.50

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter WDWLW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km401 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

W17 OctA · Bologna3–11.9 xPts
L13 OctH · Club Brugge KV3–41.9 xPts
W10 OctH · Parma3–02.6 xPts
D19 SepA · AS Roma2–21.2 xPts
W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts

Shakhtar Donetsk DW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,676 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 66 · 4 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W14 OctH · AEK Athens FC3–11.6 xPts
D10 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Shakhtar Donetsk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,676 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	401 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs Bologna (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Shakhtar Donetsk Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs AEK Athens FC (H) 3–1, 14 Oct

31D. Riznyk(G)

13Pedro Henrique 22M. Matviienko 5V. Bondar 17Vinícius Tobias

27O. Ocheretko

11Newerton 6Marlon Gomes 10Pedrinho 30Alisson Santana

9Kauã Elias

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −21.7% · Defence line −6.2% of weighted minutes

ATT Lautaro Martínez Starter 7.18 Att −19.0%
MID C. Jones Rotation 6.72 Att −2.7% Def −1.6%
DEF B. Pavard Rotation 6.96 Def −2.9%
DEF J. Stones Rotation 6.75 Def −1.7%

Shakhtar Donetsk Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −6.0% · Defence line −5.8% of weighted minutes

MID Eguinaldo Rotation 6.78 Att −3.5% Def −1.5%
DEF Marlon Rotation 6.90 Def −2.3%
MID A. Ghram Rotation 7.02 Att −1.7% Def −0.7%
DEF I. Azarovi Rotation 7.10 Def −1.2%
ATT P. Obah Depth — Att −0.7%
MID M. Shved Depth 6.25 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): V. Korniienko, T. Puzankov, D. Tvardovskyi

Total impact vs full squads

Inter-0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 4.00

Shakhtar Donetsk · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Inter wins1 draws0 Shakhtar Donetsk wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 50%

24 Nov 2021Inter2–0Shakhtar Donetsk
28 Sep 2021Shakhtar Donetsk0–0Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Shakhtar Donetsk	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	3.98
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	76%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Inter	Shakhtar Donetsk	Forecast
Scored per game	2.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	4.60	3.00	3.98
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	50%	76%
Over 3.5	70%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Shakhtar Donetsk	League
Corners
Corners won	7.50	4.00
Corners conceded	3.50	2.50
Match total	11.00	6.50	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.50
Opponent cards	2.50	3.50
Match total	5.00	7.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2

	Inter	Shakhtar Donetsk	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.29
Corners conceded	3.20	3.00
Match total	9.20	8.29	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	3.70	4.90	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.