Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Oct 23 · 19:45 Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

Kortrijk 18th · 3 pts · 8 played LLLWL

VS— Compare

KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played DLLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

KV Mechelen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kortrijk. Kortrijk have 13 days of rest, KV Mechelen 12.1 and have to travel 88 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel88 kmRest days13 · 12.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Kortrijk34%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen39%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.43

Kortrijk32%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Kortrijk34%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen39%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.43

Kortrijk28%

Draw26%

KV Mechelen46%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.60

Kortrijk35%

Draw26%

KV Mechelen39%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.47

Over 2.5 52% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kortrijk)

9°CDrizzle

Precipitation 78%
Wind 28 km/h
Humidity 93%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Kortrijk

KV Mechelen

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

10 AttackIn forecast 18

16 DefenceIn forecast 23

13 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kortrijk

Attack—

Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kortrijk

KV Mechelen

0.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

25% Scored inContext 38%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

11.25 ShotsContext 11.13

2.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

23% On target shareContext 28%

6.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.88

59% Box shareContext 68%

2% ConversionContext 10%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.86

14.25 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

62% Save rateContext 58%

44% PossessionIn forecast 47%

396 PassesContext 407

314 Accurate passesContext 317

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.55

12.00 FoulsContext 12.25

9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.88

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

30% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.40 ShotsContext 10.90

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

25% On target shareContext 28%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

60% Box shareContext 65%

3% ConversionContext 10%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.63

14.60 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56

3.20 BlocksContext 3.40

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

67% Save rateContext 60%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

383 PassesContext 400

297 Accurate passesContext 311

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.57 Team ratingContext 6.55

11.80 FoulsContext 10.90

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kortrijk LLLWL

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km315 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L10 OctA · Genk0–30.5 xPts
W20 SepH · SK Beveren1–01.2 xPts
L13 SepA · RAAL La Louvière0–31.0 xPts
L6 SepH · Zulte Waregem0–21.0 xPts
L3 SepA · Anderlecht0–10.5 xPts

KV Mechelen DLLDW

Rest12.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel88 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Oct	12.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	315 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kortrijk Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Genk (A) 0–3, 10 Oct

1P. Gunnarsson(G)

3M. Anderson 4H. Murray-Campbell 21A. Drouhin 36R. Kohon

70A. Phillips 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere

68T. Ambrose 10G. Koyalipou 11S. Campbell

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct

13Nacho Mirás(G)

3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie

7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez

9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman

28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kortrijk No reported absences

KV Mechelen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Kortrijk+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
KV Mechelen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Kortrijk · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

KV Mechelen · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 A
Anderlecht	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Charleroi	L 1–3 H	L 0–2 A
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Kortrijk wins0 draws2 KV Mechelen wins

Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

24 Feb 2024KV Mechelen3–0Kortrijk
26 Nov 2023Kortrijk0–3KV Mechelen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.25	1.13
Conceded per game	2.25	2.13
Match goals	2.50	3.25	2.76
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	13%	50%
Both teams scored	13%	38%	57%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	75%	63%
Games	8	8

	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.25	1.10
Conceded per game	2.25	2.10
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.76
Over 1.5	75%	70%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	13%	50%
Both teams scored	13%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	13%	20%
Failed to score	75%	50%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.43	4.63
Corners conceded	6.29	4.25
Match total	9.72	8.88	10.01
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.63	2.13
Match total	3.63	3.63	3.36
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Kortrijk	KV Mechelen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.20
Corners conceded	6.56	4.10
Match total	10.23	8.30	10.01
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.10
Match total	3.30	3.60	3.36
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.