Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 24 · 17:15 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Lommel United 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Lommel United are the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. OH Leuven have 13.1 days of rest, Lommel United 14.9 and have to travel 59 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel59 kmRest days13.1 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
OH Leuven33%
Draw27%
Lommel United40%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.41
OH Leuven30%
Draw27%
Lommel United43%
Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48
OH Leuven33%
Draw27%
Lommel United40%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.41
OH Leuven27%
Draw26%
Lommel United47%
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58
OH Leuven33%
Draw27%
Lommel United40%
Expected goals 1.30 – 1.46
Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
10°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 39%
  • Wind 24 km/h
  • Humidity 92%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OH Leuven and Lommel United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

OH LeuvenLommel United
18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
17 AttackIn forecast 32
30 DefenceIn forecast 41
25 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenLommel United
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
63% Scored inContext 50%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
12.75 ShotsContext 10.75
2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
19% On target shareContext 28%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
69% Box shareContext 66%
6% ConversionContext 11%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.33
14.75 Shots allowedContext 19.25
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
5.14 BlocksContext 6.50
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
63% Save rateContext 76%
48% PossessionIn forecast 44%
418 PassesContext 407
329 Accurate passesContext 339
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.25 FoulsContext 7.00
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
60% Scored inContext 50%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.70 ShotsContext 10.50
2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75
21% On target shareContext 29%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
70% Box shareContext 66%
6% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33
15.00 Shots allowedContext 18.80
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
4.78 BlocksContext 5.80
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
66% Save rateContext 75%
47% PossessionIn forecast 45%
402 PassesContext 403
318 Accurate passesContext 331
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.88
10.90 FoulsContext 7.20
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km49 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts
Lommel United
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel59 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W9 OctA · SK Beveren3–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · KV Mechelen0–01.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Union St. Gilloise0–50.6 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Club Brugge KV0–11.0 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven Lommel United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct14.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km59 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways49 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one7.98.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy
Lommel United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SK Beveren (A) 3–1, 9 Oct
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 8Nicolas Rommens 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll 15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven No reported absences
Lommel United No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Lommel United+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
Lommel United · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenLommel United
Union St. Gilloise D 1–1 A L 0–5 A
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 H W 1–0 A
SK Beveren L 0–3 A W 3–1 A
Club Brugge KV L 0–3 H L 0–1 H
Charleroi L 1–3 A L 0–1 H
Points2 of 15 · 0.40 per game6 of 15 · 1.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 0.751.13
Conceded per game 1.751.13
Match goals 2.502.25 2.67
Over 1.5 88%50%
Over 2.5 50%38% 50%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 50%25% 55%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 38%50%
Games88
OH LeuvenLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 0.901.13
Conceded per game 1.401.13
Match goals 2.302.25 2.67
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 40%38% 50%
Over 3.5 10%38%
Both teams scored 40%25% 55%
Clean sheets 30%38%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won3.253.50
Corners conceded8.257.88
Match total11.5011.3810.01
Over 8.575% 6/888% 7/8
Over 9.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 10.563% 5/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.131.00
Opponent cards1.631.63
Match total3.762.633.36
Over 3.575% 6/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
OH LeuvenLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won3.603.60
Corners conceded8.207.60
Match total11.8011.2010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1090% 9/10
Over 9.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 10.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.701.20
Opponent cards1.501.80
Match total3.203.003.36
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OH Leuven8 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Kortrijk KV Mechelen Oct 2319:45 Antwerp Charleroi Oct 2415:00 OH Leuven Lommel United Oct 2417:15 KVC Westerlo SK Beveren Oct 2419:45 RAAL La Louvière Zulte Waregem Oct 2419:45 Genk Standard Liege Oct 2512:30 Club Brugge KV St. Truiden Oct 2515:00 Gent Anderlecht Oct 2517:30 Union St. Gilloise Cercle Brugge Oct 2518:15