Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 25 · 17:30 Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Gent are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Gent. Gent have 14.9 days of rest, Anderlecht 2.9 and have to travel 50 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel50 kmRest days14.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d0 · 2
Gent48%
Draw26%
Anderlecht26%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.15
Gent45%
Draw27%
Anderlecht28%
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16
Gent48%
Draw26%
Anderlecht26%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.15
Gent41%
Draw27%
Anderlecht33%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.29
Gent49%
Draw26%
Anderlecht25%
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.13
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 32 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
8°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 33%
  • Wind 16 km/h
  • Humidity 91%
Strong wind
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Gent and Anderlecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GentAnderlecht
46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
46 AttackIn forecast 37
61 DefenceIn forecast 52
84 Form indexContext 59
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GentAnderlecht
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
100% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.38 ShotsContext 15.00
5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
41% On target shareContext 32%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
65% Box shareContext 61%
15% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.43
10.63 Shots allowedContext 9.88
3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.50 BlocksContext 2.00
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
88% Save rateContext 76%
46% PossessionIn forecast 62%
456 PassesContext 560
386 Accurate passesContext 482
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.99
10.25 FoulsContext 12.38
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.95
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.20 ShotsContext 11.88
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
36% On target shareContext 38%
8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
67% Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 8%
2.29 OffsidesContext 1.50
12.60 Shots allowedContext 11.25
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
3.80 BlocksContext 1.90
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
82% Save rateContext 81%
46% PossessionIn forecast 60%
453 PassesContext 533
384 Accurate passesContext 459
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.93
10.00 FoulsContext 12.90
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts
Anderlecht
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel50 km2,618 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Gent Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 13
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Oct2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km2,618 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 11 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one76.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Gent No reported absences
Anderlecht No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Gent+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Anderlecht+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Anderlecht · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGentAnderlecht
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A W 3–0 H
Genk D 1–1 A D 0–0 H
Cercle Brugge W 3–0 A W 2–1 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 A W 2–1 H
KV Mechelen W 2–0 H W 1–0 A
Points13 of 15 · 2.60 per game13 of 15 · 2.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Gent wins2 draws3 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.50 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 10 May 2026Gent1–1Anderlecht
  • 12 Apr 2026Anderlecht3–1Gent
  • 18 Jan 2026Gent4–2Anderlecht
  • 23 Sep 2025Anderlecht1–0Gent
  • 4 Feb 2024Anderlecht1–0Gent
  • 12 Nov 2023Gent1–1Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GentAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 1.881.13
Conceded per game 0.500.75
Match goals 2.381.88 2.80
Over 1.5 88%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 53%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%25% 56%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%38%
Games88
GentAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 2.001.40
Conceded per game 0.500.70
Match goals 2.502.10 2.80
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 50%60% 53%
Over 3.5 10%0%
Both teams scored 50%20% 56%
Clean sheets 50%60%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GentAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.146.63
Corners conceded3.713.13
Match total8.859.7610.01
Over 8.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 9.543% 3/738% 3/8
Over 10.543% 3/738% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.502.13
Opponent cards1.501.38
Match total3.003.513.36
Over 3.525% 2/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
GentAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.785.40
Corners conceded4.003.80
Match total9.789.2010.01
Over 8.567% 6/960% 6/10
Over 9.556% 5/940% 4/10
Over 10.556% 5/910% 1/10
Cards
Cards1.702.20
Opponent cards1.201.80
Match total2.904.003.36
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Kortrijk KV Mechelen Oct 2319:45 Antwerp Charleroi Oct 2415:00 OH Leuven Lommel United Oct 2417:15 KVC Westerlo SK Beveren Oct 2419:45 RAAL La Louvière Zulte Waregem Oct 2419:45 Genk Standard Liege Oct 2512:30 Club Brugge KV St. Truiden Oct 2515:00 Gent Anderlecht Oct 2517:30 Union St. Gilloise Cercle Brugge Oct 2518:15