Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 25 · 15:00 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 21 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV are clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV are the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 35). Club Brugge KV have 3.8 days of rest, St. Truiden 13.9 and have to travel. Weather to note: strong wind.

Rest days3.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Club Brugge KV78%
Draw13%
St. Truiden10%
Expected goals 3.23 – 1.15
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw19%
St. Truiden11%
Expected goals 2.25 – 0.79
Club Brugge KV78%
Draw13%
St. Truiden10%
Expected goals 3.23 – 1.15
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw16%
St. Truiden14%
Expected goals 2.88 – 1.29
Club Brugge KV76%
Draw14%
St. Truiden10%
Expected goals 3.09 – 1.10
Over 2.5 81% Both score 66% Likeliest score 3–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 38 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
9°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 45%
  • Wind 27 km/h
  • Humidity 74%
Strong wind
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Club Brugge KVSt. Truiden
76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
86 AttackIn forecast 37
58 DefenceIn forecast 32
86 Form indexContext 11
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVSt. Truiden
2.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
100% Scored inContext 63%
63% Clean sheetsContext 13%
18.25 ShotsContext 17.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
33% On target shareContext 27%
13.88 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
75% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 11%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.86
13.63 Shots allowedContext 13.63
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
3.88 BlocksContext 3.00
2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
82% Save rateContext 69%
64% PossessionIn forecast 56%
601 PassesContext 520
535 Accurate passesContext 437
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.27 Team ratingContext 6.82
7.88 FoulsContext 10.38
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.63
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.61 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.21
100% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.00 ShotsContext 17.00
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
34% On target shareContext 27%
13.70 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
76% Box shareContext 68%
15% ConversionContext 11%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.86
15.70 Shots allowedContext 13.63
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
4.60 BlocksContext 3.10
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
76% Save rateContext 69%
62% PossessionIn forecast 56%
580 PassesContext 520
515 Accurate passesContext 437
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.82
9.20 FoulsContext 10.80
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,551 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Inter4–30.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · RAAL La Louvière4–12.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genk3–01.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Antwerp3–12.4 xPts
  • L8 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.5 xPts
St. Truiden
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct13.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,551 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one5.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Inter (A) 4–3, 13 Oct
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 58J. Spileers 64K. Sabbe
11J. Virgili 20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV No reported absences
St. Truiden No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.25
St. Truiden · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.50
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentClub Brugge KVSt. Truiden
RAAL La Louvière W 4–1 A W 4–0 H
Antwerp W 3–1 H W 4–1 A
Lommel United W 1–0 A D 1–1 H
Cercle Brugge W 1–0 H D 3–3 A
Points12 of 12 · 3.00 per game8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws2 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.17 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%
  • 9 May 2026Club Brugge KV2–0St. Truiden
  • 11 Apr 2026St. Truiden1–2Club Brugge KV
  • 6 Dec 2025St. Truiden3–2Club Brugge KV
  • 21 Sep 2025Club Brugge KV2–0St. Truiden
  • 17 Mar 2024St. Truiden2–1Club Brugge KV
  • 1 Oct 2023Club Brugge KV1–1St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 2.381.88
Conceded per game 0.502.00
Match goals 2.883.88 4.38
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 75%63% 81%
Over 3.5 25%50%
Both teams scored 38%50% 66%
Clean sheets 63%13%
Failed to score 0%38%
Games88
Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 2.501.80
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 3.503.80 4.38
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%60% 81%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 66%
Clean sheets 50%20%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won8.255.38
Corners conceded3.133.63
Match total11.389.0110.01
Over 8.575% 6/850% 4/8
Over 9.575% 6/838% 3/8
Over 10.550% 4/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards2.001.25
Match total3.503.253.36
Over 3.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 4.538% 3/825% 2/8
Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.305.50
Corners conceded3.403.50
Match total10.709.0010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.902.20
Opponent cards2.101.30
Match total4.003.503.36
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV8 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 46-60
6 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Kortrijk KV Mechelen Oct 2319:45 Antwerp Charleroi Oct 2415:00 OH Leuven Lommel United Oct 2417:15 KVC Westerlo SK Beveren Oct 2419:45 RAAL La Louvière Zulte Waregem Oct 2419:45 Genk Standard Liege Oct 2512:30 Club Brugge KV St. Truiden Oct 2515:00 Gent Anderlecht Oct 2517:30 Union St. Gilloise Cercle Brugge Oct 2518:15