Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Leeds. Leeds had 4.8 days of rest, Arsenal 5.9 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days4.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds22%
Draw23%
Arsenal55%
Leeds18%
Draw23%
Arsenal58%
Leeds22%
Draw24%
Arsenal54%
Leeds16%
Draw21%
Arsenal63%
Leeds22%
Draw25%
Arsenal53%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 131
Team strength
Leeds
Arsenal
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
69
AttackIn forecast
86
77
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsArsenal
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
74%
Scored inContext
87%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
12.87
ShotsContext
14.91
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
67%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.12
11.83
Shots allowedContext
7.91
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.72
3.71
BlocksContext
3.20
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
403
PassesContext
490
322
Accurate passesContext
418
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.09
FoulsContext
10.17
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.52
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.60
ShotsContext
16.20
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
31%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
71%
Box shareContext
76%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.70
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.88
3.40
BlocksContext
3.78
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
60%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
403
PassesContext
473
317
Accurate passesContext
401
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.10
FoulsContext
11.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km207 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Jan | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 207 km | 350 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
44I. Gruev
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
11B. Aaronson
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
5P. Hincapié
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
19L. Trossard
29K. Havertz
20C. Madueke
14V. Gyökeres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Arsenal+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.18
Arsenal · Away
1.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Brentford | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game | 47 of 66 · 2.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Leeds wins1 draws6 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.71 – 2.86
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 23 Aug 2025Arsenal5–0Leeds
- 1 Apr 2023Arsenal4–1Leeds
- 16 Oct 2022Leeds0–1Arsenal
- 8 May 2022Arsenal2–1Leeds
- 18 Dec 2021Leeds1–4Arsenal
- 14 Feb 2021Arsenal4–2Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.57 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 48% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Leeds | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 5.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 8.86 | 9.24 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 6/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.13 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 7/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Leeds | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.13 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 131 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.71
Red cards0.13league 0.10
Cards 5+44%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 21.3
Penalties0.20league 0.20
Home wins50%league 45%
Leeds7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W24 Oct 25H · West Ham2–13
- W17 Feb 25H · Sunderland2–13
- L28 Dec 22H · Manchester City1–33
- D2 Oct 22H · Aston Villa0–05
- W21 Aug 22H · Chelsea3–00
Arsenal8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D21 Sep 25H · Manchester City1–11
- L4 Nov 23A · Newcastle0–11
- W19 Mar 23H · Crystal Palace4–10
- W12 Nov 22A · Wolves2–02
- L1 Jan 22H · Manchester City1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds23 games · scored 31 · conceded 38
5
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
10
3
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
7
61-75
6
11
76-90
Arsenal23 games · scored 42 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
8
4
31-45
12
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
10
7
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
5
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
