Leeds vs Chelsea – 3 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Wed, Dec 3 · 20:15 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 18th · 11 pts · 13 played WLLLL

3–1Full time

Chelsea 4th · 24 pts · 13 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 59). Leeds had 4.2 days of rest, Chelsea 3.2 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Leeds24%

Draw24%

Chelsea52%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.84

Leeds24%

Draw26%

Chelsea50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

Leeds24%

Draw24%

Chelsea52%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.80

Leeds18%

Draw22%

Chelsea60%

Expected goals 1.05 – 2.06

Leeds24%

Draw25%

Chelsea51%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.69

Over 2.5 58% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 107

Team strength

Leeds

Chelsea

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

69 AttackIn forecast 77

77 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Chelsea

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.85

1.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

62% Scored inContext 92%

15% Clean sheetsContext 46%

11.92 ShotsContext 14.15

3.62 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.46

30% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.23

64% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.90 OffsidesContext 2.27

11.38 Shots allowedContext 9.23

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.08

3.64 BlocksContext 2.67

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.18

65% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 58%

421 PassesContext 513

346 Accurate passesContext 443

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.07

10.69 FoulsContext 11.31

12.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.77

1.69 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.23

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

70% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.10 ShotsContext 15.80

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.40

35% On target shareContext 41%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

67% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.44

11.50 Shots allowedContext 7.20

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33

3.75 BlocksContext 2.33

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.75

63% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 56%

429 PassesContext 496

355 Accurate passesContext 429

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.20 FoulsContext 13.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel272 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	115 km	583 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

3G. Gudmundsson 18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 22A. Tanaka 2J. Bogle

14L. Nmecha 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 5B. Badiashile 4T. Adarabioyo 23T. Chalobah

17Andrey Santos 8E. Fernández

11J. Gittens 20João Pedro 41Estêvão

9L. Delap

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Chelsea+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.17

Chelsea · Away 2.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Chelsea
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	W 3–0 A
Brighton	L 0–3 A	L 1–3 H
West Ham	W 2–1 H	W 5–1 A
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 A
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Wolves	W 3–1 A	W 3–0 H
Fulham	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Arsenal	L 0–5 A	D 1–1 H
Points	6 of 24 · 0.75 per game	19 of 24 · 2.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Leeds wins1 draws5 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.14 – 1.86 Over 2.571% Both scored43% Clean sheets29% · 43%

28 Feb 2024Chelsea3–2Leeds
4 Mar 2023Chelsea1–0Leeds
21 Aug 2022Leeds3–0Chelsea
11 May 2022Leeds0–3Chelsea
11 Dec 2021Chelsea3–2Leeds
13 Mar 2021Leeds0–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.85
Conceded per game	1.92	0.92
Match goals	2.92	2.77	3.01
Over 1.5	77%	85%
Over 2.5	69%	62%	58%
Over 3.5	38%	23%
Both teams scored	54%	54%	59%
Clean sheets	15%	46%
Failed to score	38%	8%
Games	13	13

	Leeds	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.70
Conceded per game	2.00	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.80	3.01
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	6.38
Corners conceded	3.58	3.77
Match total	7.83	10.15	9.94
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	85% 11/13
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	77% 10/13
Over 10.5	17% 2/12	46% 6/13
Cards
Cards	1.69	2.31
Opponent cards	1.69	2.62
Match total	3.38	4.93	3.79
Over 3.5	38% 5/13	69% 9/13
Over 4.5	31% 4/13	62% 8/13

	Leeds	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	6.50
Corners conceded	3.78	2.63
Match total	7.89	9.13	9.94
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	3.80	4.50	3.79
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.67

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+41%league 40%

Fouls22.2league 22.0

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins44%league 49%

Leeds6 with this referee

Record1-4-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

W2 Dec 23H · Middlesbrough3–22
L1 Apr 23A · Arsenal1–42
D30 Aug 22H · Everton1–13
D25 Apr 22A · Crystal Palace0–02
D7 Nov 21H · Leicester1–11

Chelsea4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

D17 Aug 25H · Crystal Palace0–02
W25 Aug 24A · Wolves6–23
D30 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
D18 Mar 23H · Everton2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.