Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Leeds had 9.8 days of rest, Fulham 9.8 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds42%
Draw26%
Fulham32%
Leeds41%
Draw27%
Fulham32%
Leeds41%
Draw26%
Fulham33%
Leeds34%
Draw26%
Fulham39%
Leeds42%
Draw27%
Fulham31%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 148
Team strength
Leeds
Fulham
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
69
AttackIn forecast
66
77
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsFulham
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
71%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.76
ShotsContext
11.95
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
32%
On target shareContext
32%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.05
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.33
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.95
3.79
BlocksContext
3.48
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
62%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
403
PassesContext
473
324
Accurate passesContext
396
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.14
FoulsContext
11.10
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.71
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
90%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.50
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
38%
On target shareContext
35%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
72%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.90
BlocksContext
3.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
60%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
385
PassesContext
530
301
Accurate passesContext
452
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.30
FoulsContext
8.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
7.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km262 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 262 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
44I. Gruev
4E. Ampadu
11B. Aaronson
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
30K. Sessegnon
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fulham-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.30
Fulham · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Brentford | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 2–3 A | L 4–5 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–5 A | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 28 of 60 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Leeds wins0 draws3 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.80 – 2.00
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 13 Sep 2025Fulham1–0Leeds
- 22 Apr 2023Fulham2–1Leeds
- 23 Oct 2022Leeds2–3Fulham
- 19 Mar 2021Fulham1–2Leeds
- 19 Sep 2020Leeds4–3Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.86 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 52% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Leeds | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.79 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.05 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 10.23 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.48 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.62 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.76 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 8/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Leeds | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.60 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 148 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.71
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls21.8league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins39%league 45%
Leeds12 with this referee
Record4-1-7
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.1
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- D1 Jan 26A · Liverpool0–02
- W18 Aug 25H · Everton1–00
- W17 Sep 23A · Millwall3–00
- L30 Apr 23A · Bournemouth1–40
- L16 Oct 22H · Arsenal0–10
Fulham9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W27 Dec 25A · West Ham1–03
- D24 Aug 25H · Manchester United1–11
- W6 Apr 25H · Liverpool3–23
- W1 Feb 25A · Newcastle2–14
- D8 Dec 24H · Arsenal1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds21 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
5
4
0-15
5
16-30
10
3
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
7
61-75
5
10
76-90
Fulham21 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
1
61-75
8
8
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
