Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Leeds40.4%fair odds 2.47
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Manchester United33.7%fair odds 2.97
Expected goals1.53 – 1.38total 2.91
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Leeds ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Leeds goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.25
- 2–18.8%11.36
- 1–27.9%12.61
- 1–07.7%12.91
- 0–16.9%14.45
- 2–06.4%15.65
- 0–06.1%16.46
- 2–26.1%16.49
- 0–25.2%19.28
- 3–14.5%22.29
Winning margin
7.9%
Leeds by 3+
fair 12.58
12.2%
Leeds by 2
fair 8.17
20.2%
Leeds by 1
fair 4.94
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
18.2%
Manchester United by 1
fair 5.50
9.9%
Manchester United by 2
fair 10.06
5.6%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 17.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Leeds goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Manchester United goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 40.4% | 40.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Manchester United win | 33.7% | 32.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 51.4% | +4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.2% | 56.0% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.53 | 1.45 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.38 | 1.29 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Leeds win40.4%2.47
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Manchester United win33.7%2.97
- Double chance Leeds or draw66.3%1.51
- Double chance Leeds or Manchester United74.1%1.35
- Double chance Manchester United or draw59.6%1.68
- Draw no bet Leeds54.5%1.83
- Draw no bet Manchester United45.5%2.20
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.3%1.26
- Over 2.555.6%1.80
- Over 3.533.2%3.01
- Over 4.516.9%5.90
- Under 1.520.7%4.82
- Under 2.544.4%2.25
- Under 3.566.8%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes59.2%1.69
- No40.8%2.45
- Yes and over 2.547.1%2.12
- Leeds win and yes21.3%4.70
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Manchester United win and yes18.1%5.53
Team goals
- Leeds over 0.578.3%1.28
- Leeds over 1.545.2%2.21
- Leeds over 2.519.8%5.04
- Manchester United over 0.574.8%1.34
- Manchester United over 1.540.1%2.50
- Manchester United over 2.516.1%6.20
- Leeds clean sheet25.2%3.97
- Manchester United clean sheet21.7%4.61
- Leeds win to nil19.1%5.23
- Manchester United win to nil15.6%6.41
Handicap
- Leeds −1.520.2%4.95
- Leeds −2.57.9%12.58
- Manchester United +1.579.8%1.25
- Manchester United +2.592.1%1.09
- Manchester United −1.515.5%6.45
- Leeds +1.584.5%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored194
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right55.7%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 38.2% | 44.8% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 64.1% | 68.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 164 of 194 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5880 | 0.5759 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 54.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 164 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 194 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.