Leeds vs Manchester United – 4 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 4 · 12:30 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 16th · 21 pts · 19 played DDWDD

1–1Full time

Manchester United 6th · 30 pts · 19 played WDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 66). Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Leeds had 2.8 days of rest, Manchester United 4.7 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days2.8 · 4.7Matches / 14d2 · 3

Leeds40%

Draw26%

Manchester United34%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.38

Leeds39%

Draw27%

Manchester United34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Leeds39%

Draw26%

Manchester United35%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.38

Leeds33%

Draw26%

Manchester United41%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.54

Leeds40%

Draw27%

Manchester United33%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.29

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 96

Team strength

Leeds

Manchester United

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

69 AttackIn forecast 72

77 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Manchester United

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.74

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

68% Scored inContext 84%

16% Clean sheetsContext 11%

12.79 ShotsContext 16.11

4.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63

32% On target shareContext 35%

8.58 Shots in the boxContext 11.06

66% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.81

11.63 Shots allowedContext 11.37

4.05 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.71 BlocksContext 3.35

2.61 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.59

65% Save rateContext 60%

46% PossessionIn forecast 53%

406 PassesContext 456

328 Accurate passesContext 374

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.21 FoulsContext 10.11

11.74 Fouls sufferedContext 11.47

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.60 ShotsContext 17.10

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

35% On target shareContext 35%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.89

67% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.30 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.10 BlocksContext 4.11

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

63% Save rateContext 57%

45% PossessionIn forecast 56%

390 PassesContext 477

311 Accurate passesContext 397

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.20 FoulsContext 10.44

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km455 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest4.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel57 km227 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan	4.7Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	455 km	227 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	3.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 23S. Bornauw

3G. Gudmundsson 44I. Gruev 18A. Stach 11B. Aaronson 24J. Justin

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

6L. Martínez 26A. Heaven 15L. Yoro

23L. Shaw 25M. Ugarte 18Casemiro 2Diogo Dalot

10Matheus Cunha 13P. Dorgu

30B. Šeško

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+1.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Manchester United-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.89
Conceded: 1.33

Manchester United · Away 1.33points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Manchester United
Liverpool	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	W 4–1 H	W 2–1 A
Brentford	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	L 2–3 A	L 0–3 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 A
Brighton	L 0–3 A	W 4–2 H
West Ham	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 H
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	D 4–4 H
Wolves	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A
Fulham	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Arsenal	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 H
Everton	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Points	21 of 57 · 1.11 per game	30 of 57 · 1.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Leeds wins2 draws4 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.17 – 3.17 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

12 Feb 2023Leeds0–2Manchester United
8 Feb 2023Manchester United2–2Leeds
20 Feb 2022Leeds2–4Manchester United
14 Aug 2021Manchester United5–1Leeds
25 Apr 2021Leeds0–0Manchester United
20 Dec 2020Manchester United6–2Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.74
Conceded per game	1.68	1.53
Match goals	3.00	3.26	2.91
Over 1.5	79%	84%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	56%
Over 3.5	42%	37%
Both teams scored	63%	74%	59%
Clean sheets	16%	11%
Failed to score	32%	16%
Games	19	19

	Leeds	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	3.40	3.30	2.91
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.76	4.74
Corners conceded	3.82	4.84
Match total	8.58	9.58	9.87
Over 8.5	59% 10/17	58% 11/19
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	53% 10/19
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	32% 6/19
Cards
Cards	1.53	1.47
Opponent cards	1.58	2.42
Match total	3.11	3.89	3.82
Over 3.5	37% 7/19	58% 11/19
Over 4.5	26% 5/19	42% 8/19

	Leeds	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.60
Corners conceded	4.78	4.90
Match total	9.78	10.50	9.87
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	3.00	3.80	3.82
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.68

Red cards0.10league 0.10

Cards 5+38%league 37%

Fouls20.0league 21.4

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins40%league 46%

Leeds3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 2

L9 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest1–31
L23 Aug 25A · Arsenal0–52
D9 Feb 22A · Aston Villa3–33

Manchester United7 with this referee

Record2-0-5 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 3

L11 May 25H · West Ham0–20
L1 Apr 25A · Nottingham Forest0–13
L6 May 24A · Crystal Palace0–41
L4 Apr 24A · Chelsea3–41
W1 Feb 24A · Wolves4–35

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.