Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 50). Leeds had 6.2 days of rest, West Ham 4 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days6.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Leeds52%
Draw24%
West Ham24%
Leeds51%
Draw25%
West Ham23%
Leeds53%
Draw24%
West Ham23%
Leeds45%
Draw25%
West Ham30%
Leeds51%
Draw25%
West Ham24%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 122
Team strength
Leeds
West Ham
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
69
AttackIn forecast
68
77
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsWest Ham
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
27%
On target shareContext
36%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
64%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.20
9.88
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
3.17
BlocksContext
4.38
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
70%
Save rateContext
54%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
389
352
Accurate passesContext
317
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.00
FoulsContext
10.75
12.13
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.10
ShotsContext
10.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
29%
On target shareContext
37%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
66%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.60
Shots allowedContext
14.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.86
BlocksContext
4.30
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
74%
Save rateContext
56%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
485
PassesContext
423
412
Accurate passesContext
350
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.40
FoulsContext
10.90
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 4Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
8S. Longstaff
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
11B. Aaronson
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
3M. Kilman
25J. Todibo
12E. Diouf
39A. Irving
28T. Souček
30O. Scarles
20J. Bowen
10Lucas Paquetá
7C. Summerville
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- West Ham+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
West Ham · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Everton | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Leeds wins1 draws4 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.17
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 21 May 2023West Ham3–1Leeds
- 4 Jan 2023Leeds2–2West Ham
- 16 Jan 2022West Ham2–3Leeds
- 25 Sep 2021Leeds1–2West Ham
- 8 Mar 2021West Ham2–0Leeds
- 11 Dec 2020Leeds1–2West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Leeds | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.57 | 7.63 | |
| Match total | 7.28 | 13.26 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.13 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 2.63 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Leeds | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.38 | 7.56 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 13.45 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.61
Red cards0.12league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls21.0league 21.9
Penalties0.19league 0.20
Home wins50%league 48%
Leeds6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W17 Feb 25H · Sunderland2–13
- L28 Dec 22H · Manchester City1–33
- D2 Oct 22H · Aston Villa0–05
- W21 Aug 22H · Chelsea3–00
- W13 Mar 22H · Norwich2–13
West Ham12 with this referee
Record3-2-7
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 Feb 25A · Chelsea1–21
- D9 Nov 24H · Everton0–01
- L14 Apr 24H · Fulham0–21
- L29 Oct 23H · Everton0–14
- L4 Mar 23A · Brighton0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds8 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
West Ham8 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
