Manchester United vs Brighton – 25 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 25 · 17:30 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 9th · 13 pts · 8 played LWLWW

4–2Full time

Brighton 10th · 12 pts · 8 played LDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Manchester United had 6 days of rest, Brighton 7.1 and had to travel 326 km.

Away travel326 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester United41%

Draw26%

Brighton33%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.35

Manchester United41%

Draw27%

Brighton32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Manchester United42%

Draw26%

Brighton32%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.32

Manchester United34%

Draw26%

Brighton40%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.52

Manchester United40%

Draw27%

Brighton33%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.28

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 190

Team strength

Manchester United

Brighton

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

72 AttackIn forecast 87

80 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Brighton

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

75% Scored inContext 88%

13% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.25 ShotsContext 11.88

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

31% On target shareContext 37%

10.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.13

69% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.38 Shots allowedContext 11.13

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13

2.29 BlocksContext 2.86

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

64% Save rateContext 64%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

432 PassesContext 392

347 Accurate passesContext 322

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.50 FoulsContext 12.63

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.30 ShotsContext 14.30

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

33% On target shareContext 39%

11.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

69% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.90 OffsidesContext 2.75

9.20 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.33 BlocksContext 3.11

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

65% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

456 PassesContext 410

373 Accurate passesContext 343

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.40 FoulsContext 11.80

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel326 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Oct	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	326 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

2Diogo Dalot 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

10Matheus Cunha 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

11Y. Minteh 10G. Rutter 24F. Kadıoğlu

18D. Welbeck

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brighton+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Brighton · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Brighton
Chelsea	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fulham	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Manchester United wins0 draws6 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.80 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

19 Jan 2025Manchester United1–3Brighton
24 Aug 2024Brighton2–1Manchester United
19 May 2024Brighton0–2Manchester United
16 Sep 2023Manchester United1–3Brighton
4 May 2023Brighton1–0Manchester United
7 Aug 2022Manchester United1–2Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.38
Match goals	2.88	2.88	2.89
Over 1.5	88%	100%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	55%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	88%	59%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	8	8

	Manchester United	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.38
Match goals	2.88	2.88	2.89
Over 1.5	88%	100%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	55%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	88%	59%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	4.75
Corners conceded	4.63	4.00
Match total	8.76	8.75	9.85
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.75
Opponent cards	2.75	2.75
Match total	4.00	5.50	3.72
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Manchester United	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	5.20
Corners conceded	4.40	3.70
Match total	8.60	8.90	9.85
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.40
Opponent cards	2.80	2.50
Match total	4.40	4.90	3.72
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 190 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.60

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+34%league 40%

Fouls21.1league 22.1

Penalties0.28league 0.19

Home wins34%league 48%

Manchester United21 with this referee

Record6-6-9 Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.8 Pens for · against4 · 3 Reds3

L14 Sep 25A · Manchester City0–30
L4 May 25A · Brentford3–42
D9 Mar 25H · Arsenal1–10
W26 Jan 25A · Fulham1–01
W15 Dec 24A · Manchester City2–11

Brighton12 with this referee

Record4-4-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds2

L5 Apr 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
D4 Jan 25H · Arsenal1–12
W25 Nov 23A · Nottingham Forest3–26
D8 Oct 23H · Liverpool2–21
L26 Aug 23H · West Ham1–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.