Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
7th · 32 pts · 21 played
LWDDD
2–0Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 43 pts · 21 played
WWDDD
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 72). Manchester United had 9.7 days of rest, Manchester City 9.7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days9.7 · 9.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United27%
Draw24%
Manchester City49%
Manchester United26%
Draw26%
Manchester City48%
Manchester United26%
Draw24%
Manchester City49%
Manchester United21%
Draw22%
Manchester City57%
Manchester United27%
Draw26%
Manchester City47%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 200
Team strength
Manchester UnitedManchester City
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
72
AttackIn forecast
92
80
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedManchester City
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
86%
Scored inContext
86%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
16.71
ShotsContext
14.57
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
34%
On target shareContext
37%
11.45
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
66%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.14
Shots allowedContext
9.19
3.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.24
3.37
BlocksContext
2.79
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
61%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
466
PassesContext
569
383
Accurate passesContext
501
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.95
FoulsContext
9.67
11.24
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+1.02
100%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.70
ShotsContext
15.10
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
40%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
66%
Box shareContext
76%
10%
ConversionContext
20%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.70
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
4.22
BlocksContext
3.25
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
57%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
486
PassesContext
603
405
Accurate passesContext
533
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.20
10.20
FoulsContext
10.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest9.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km186 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest9.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.7Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 9.7Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 186 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
13P. Dorgu
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
6N. Aké
68M. Alleyne
45A. Khusanov
82R. Lewis
16Rodri
11J. Doku
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Manchester City-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
1.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.30
Manchester City · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | W 5–1 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | W 3–1 H |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 A | W 5–4 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game | 40 of 60 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Manchester United wins1 draws6 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 14 Sep 2025Manchester City3–0Manchester United
- 6 Apr 2025Manchester United0–0Manchester City
- 15 Dec 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
- 25 May 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
- 3 Mar 2024Manchester City3–1Manchester United
- 29 Oct 2023Manchester United0–3Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 3.05 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 62% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 48% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Manchester United | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 5.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.52 | 9.65 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 6/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.57 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Manchester United | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.45 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.70
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins35%league 45%
Manchester United22 with this referee
Record8-6-8
Cards · opp.2.4 · 0.8
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds2
- W26 Dec 25H · Newcastle1–02
- W25 Oct 25H · Brighton4–22
- L14 Sep 25A · Manchester City0–30
- L4 May 25A · Brentford3–42
- D9 Mar 25H · Arsenal1–10
Manchester City24 with this referee
Record11-6-7
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds1
- W2 Nov 25H · Bournemouth3–12
- W14 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–00
- L23 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–20
- D14 Jan 25A · Brentford2–20
- L15 Dec 24H · Manchester United1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United21 games · scored 36 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
8
8
76-90
Manchester City21 games · scored 45 · conceded 19
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
13
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
10
5
61-75
6
4
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 30 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
12
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
