Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
14th · 7 pts · 6 played
DWLWL
2–0Full time
Sunderland
6th · 11 pts · 6 played
LWDDW
Our take
Manchester United were clear favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 38). Manchester United had 7.1 days of rest, Sunderland 6.9 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United65%
Draw20%
Sunderland15%
Manchester United63%
Draw22%
Sunderland15%
Manchester United64%
Draw21%
Sunderland15%
Manchester United57%
Draw23%
Sunderland20%
Manchester United63%
Draw22%
Sunderland16%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 121
Team strength
Manchester UnitedSunderland
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
72
AttackIn forecast
62
80
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedSunderland
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.87
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.83
ShotsContext
10.33
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
30%
On target shareContext
26%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
66%
Box shareContext
77%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.33
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.60
BlocksContext
4.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
54%
Save rateContext
91%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
452
PassesContext
380
370
Accurate passesContext
307
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.00
FoulsContext
8.67
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.93
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.00
ShotsContext
9.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
31%
On target shareContext
24%
11.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
66%
Box shareContext
68%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.83
8.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.67
BlocksContext
3.80
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
55%
Save rateContext
79%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
475
PassesContext
394
397
Accurate passesContext
321
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.70
FoulsContext
9.10
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km515 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel168 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 515 km | 435 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
4M. de Ligt
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
8Bruno Fernandes
18Casemiro
16A. Diallo
7Mason Mount
19B. Mbeumo
30B. Šeško
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
26A. Masuaku
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Sunderland · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.83 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Manchester United | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.83 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.33 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.17 | 3.17 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Manchester United | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.60 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 121 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.77
Red cards0.12league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls21.0league 22.0
Penalties0.19league 0.19
Home wins50%league 45%
Manchester United11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W14 Sep 24A · Southampton3–04
- W26 Aug 23H · Nottingham Forest3–24
- W25 May 23H · Chelsea4–11
- L2 Apr 23A · Newcastle0–20
- W19 Feb 23H · Leicester3–00
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Feb 25A · Leeds1–26
- L9 Mar 24A · Southampton2–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United6 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sunderland6 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
