Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nacional. Nacional had 6.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 5.8 and had to travel.
Rest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nacional47%
Draw28%
Casa Pia26%
Nacional44%
Draw27%
Casa Pia29%
Nacional47%
Draw28%
Casa Pia26%
Nacional39%
Draw29%
Casa Pia32%
Nacional48%
Draw26%
Casa Pia26%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 63
Team strength
Nacional
Casa Pia
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
15
AttackIn forecast
13
13
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalCasa Pia
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.95
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
60%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.05
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
4.68
59%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.09
14.80
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.35
BlocksContext
3.90
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
67%
Save rateContext
57%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
306
PassesContext
316
231
Accurate passesContext
240
76%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.67
14.55
FoulsContext
15.10
11.45
Fouls sufferedContext
14.15
2.65
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
7.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
63%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.20
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.50
BlocksContext
4.20
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
59%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
329
PassesContext
303
254
Accurate passesContext
226
77%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.64
14.40
FoulsContext
14.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Casa Pia
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
27Gabriel Veron
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
18André Geraldes
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
80L. Ofori
72Gaizka Larrazabal
21Tiago Morais
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.89
Casa Pia · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | L 3–5 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 17 of 57 · 0.89 per game | 18 of 57 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Nacional wins0 draws1 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 30 Aug 2025Casa Pia0–2Nacional
- 16 Mar 2025Nacional3–1Casa Pia
- 25 Oct 2024Casa Pia1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.95 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.05 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Nacional | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.23 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.65 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.75 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 85% 17/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 13/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Nacional | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.56 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.70 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.78league 4.91
Red cards0.40league 0.29
Cards 5+71%league 59%
Fouls28.7league 27.1
Penalties0.43league 0.46
Home wins40%league 40%
Nacional3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L7 Dec 25A · Alverca0–11
- W1 Mar 25H · Famalicao2–13
- L19 Dec 24H · Benfica0–22
Casa Pia6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- D9 Nov 25A · Benfica2–22
- L8 Aug 25H · Sporting CP0–24
- D22 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente1–15
- W2 Dec 23H · Portimonense1–03
- L25 Feb 23A · Arouca0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional20 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
Casa Pia19 games · scored 19 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
