Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nacional46.5%fair odds 2.15
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.61
Casa Pia25.8%fair odds 3.88
Expected goals1.45 – 1.02total 2.47
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nacional ↓ · Casa Pia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nacional goals, columns Casa Pia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.60
- 1–011.6%8.60
- 0–09.1%10.96
- 2–19.1%11.01
- 2–08.9%11.20
- 0–17.9%12.60
- 1–26.4%15.74
- 2–24.6%21.66
- 3–14.4%22.73
- 0–24.4%22.87
Winning margin
9.0%
Nacional by 3+
fair 11.07
14.2%
Nacional by 2
fair 7.03
23.2%
Nacional by 1
fair 4.30
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.61
16.1%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 6.23
7.0%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 14.36
2.7%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 36.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Nacional goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Casa Pia goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional win | 46.5% | 47.6% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Casa Pia win | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 50.3% | -5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.6% | 53.8% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Nacional | 1.45 | 1.58 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 1.02 | 1.11 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nacional win46.5%2.15
- Draw27.7%3.61
- Casa Pia win25.8%3.88
- Double chance Nacional or draw74.2%1.35
- Double chance Nacional or Casa Pia72.3%1.38
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw53.5%1.87
- Draw no bet Nacional64.4%1.55
- Draw no bet Casa Pia35.6%2.81
Goals
- Over 0.590.9%1.10
- Over 1.571.3%1.40
- Over 2.544.8%2.23
- Over 3.523.6%4.24
- Over 4.510.5%9.54
- Under 1.528.7%3.49
- Under 2.555.2%1.81
- Under 3.576.4%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes49.6%2.02
- No50.4%1.98
- Yes and over 2.536.4%2.75
- Nacional win and yes19.4%5.14
- Draw and yes18.6%5.37
- Casa Pia win and yes11.5%8.69
Team goals
- Nacional over 0.576.6%1.31
- Nacional over 1.542.6%2.35
- Nacional over 2.518.0%5.57
- Casa Pia over 0.563.8%1.57
- Casa Pia over 1.527.0%3.70
- Casa Pia over 2.58.3%11.99
- Nacional clean sheet36.2%2.76
- Casa Pia clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Nacional win to nil27.1%3.70
- Casa Pia win to nil14.3%7.01
Handicap
- Nacional −1.523.3%4.30
- Nacional −2.59.0%11.07
- Casa Pia +1.576.7%1.30
- Casa Pia +2.591.0%1.10
- Casa Pia −1.59.7%10.31
- Nacional +1.590.3%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored184
Favourite won61.4%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.536
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 37.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.8% | 51.6% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 65.5% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 75.3% | 76.2% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 155 of 184 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5319 | 0.5232 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.4% | 45.9% |
| Favourite won | 62.6% | 60.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 155 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Estrela 1–0 Santa Clara40·29·30
- ✓Moreirense 1–2 GIL Vicente35·29·36
- ✗Casa Pia 2–1 FC Porto13·21·66
- ✓AVS 0–4 SC Braga11·20·69
- ✗Tondela 0–0 Benfica8·16·76
- ✓Sporting CP 2–1 Nacional79·15·7
- ✓GIL Vicente 5–0 Famalicao41·28·31
- ✗Alverca 1–1 Estrela47·27·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 184 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.