Newcastle vs Crystal Palace – 4 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 14th · 26 pts · 19 played WLDLW

2–0Full time

Crystal Palace 11th · 27 pts · 19 played WLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 70). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Newcastle had 4.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 2.9 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days4.8 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Newcastle53%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace23%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.14

Newcastle50%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace24%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.08

Newcastle52%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace24%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.13

Newcastle45%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace29%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.28

Newcastle52%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.09

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 93

Team strength

Newcastle

Crystal Palace

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

61 AttackIn forecast 64

61 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Crystal Palace

1.37 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.26 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.50

74% Scored inContext 68%

26% Clean sheetsContext 37%

12.74 ShotsContext 11.79

4.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.95

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

61% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.82 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.74 Shots allowedContext 11.42

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

3.63 BlocksContext 3.25

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

71% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 43%

450 PassesContext 377

374 Accurate passesContext 292

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.06 FoulsContext 9.79

11.47 Fouls sufferedContext 9.68

1.32 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.60

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 13.30

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

42% On target shareContext 30%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.89

70% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.80

12.10 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.78 BlocksContext 3.29

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

69% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

457 PassesContext 409

388 Accurate passesContext 323

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.81

8.22 FoulsContext 9.80

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 7.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km615 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec	2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	615 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 5F. Schär 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 9Y. Wissa 23J. Murphy

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 8J. Lerma

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 20A. Wharton 17N. Clyne

10Yeremy Pino 11B. Johnson

14J. Mateta

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+1.5 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Crystal Palace-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.89points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 1.33

Crystal Palace · Away 1.78points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Crystal Palace
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Everton	W 4–1 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 H
Brentford	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 A
Fulham	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	D 3–3 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Leeds	D 0–0 A	L 1–4 A
Liverpool	L 2–3 H	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	D 0–0 A	W 3–0 A
Points	26 of 57 · 1.37 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Newcastle wins4 draws2 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.60 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 30%

16 Apr 2025Newcastle5–0Crystal Palace
30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace1–1Newcastle
24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–0Newcastle
21 Oct 2023Newcastle4–0Crystal Palace
21 Jan 2023Crystal Palace0–0Newcastle
3 Sep 2022Newcastle0–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.37	1.16
Conceded per game	1.26	1.11
Match goals	2.63	2.26	2.99
Over 1.5	68%	68%
Over 2.5	63%	47%	57%
Over 3.5	37%	11%
Both teams scored	63%	47%	58%
Clean sheets	26%	37%
Failed to score	26%	32%
Games	19	19

	Newcastle	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	3.30	2.20	2.99
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	6.26	3.84
Corners conceded	5.32	5.00
Match total	11.58	8.84	9.87
Over 8.5	74% 14/19	47% 9/19
Over 9.5	58% 11/19	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	47% 9/19	37% 7/19
Cards
Cards	1.42	1.74
Opponent cards	2.42	2.05
Match total	3.84	3.79	3.80
Over 3.5	42% 8/19	68% 13/19
Over 4.5	32% 6/19	58% 11/19

	Newcastle	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	4.80
Corners conceded	6.60	3.50
Match total	13.50	8.30	9.87
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.60
Opponent cards	3.10	1.40
Match total	4.80	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.35league 3.67

Red cards0.13league 0.10

Cards 5+48%league 37%

Fouls22.6league 21.4

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins54%league 46%

Newcastle7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

W11 May 25H · Chelsea2–04
W2 Nov 24H · Arsenal1–04
L11 Mar 24A · Chelsea2–31
W30 Jan 24A · Aston Villa3–11
L27 Aug 23H · Liverpool1–21

Crystal Palace5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L2 Mar 24A · Tottenham1–32
D21 Dec 23H · Brighton1–15
W12 Aug 23A · Sheffield Utd1–00
D22 Apr 23H · Everton0–01
L12 Nov 22A · Nottingham Forest0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.