Newcastle vs Everton – 28 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 28 Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 12th · 36 pts · 27 played LLLWL

2–3Full time

Everton 9th · 37 pts · 27 played DDWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Newcastle. Newcastle had 6.8 days of rest, Everton 4.8 and had to travel 195 km.

Away travel195 kmRest days6.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle56%

Draw22%

Everton22%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.27

Newcastle53%

Draw25%

Everton22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Newcastle57%

Draw22%

Everton21%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.24

Newcastle47%

Draw24%

Everton29%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.42

Newcastle54%

Draw23%

Everton23%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.21

Over 2.5 65% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 133

Team strength

Newcastle

Everton

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

61 AttackIn forecast 61

61 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Everton

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.15

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

74% Scored inContext 70%

26% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.22 ShotsContext 11.04

4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

35% On target shareContext 30%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.58

64% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.21 OffsidesContext 1.94

11.41 Shots allowedContext 13.41

4.15 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.15

3.63 BlocksContext 4.37

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

68% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

451 PassesContext 382

377 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.88 FoulsContext 10.74

11.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.89

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.60 ShotsContext 12.20

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

36% On target shareContext 30%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

71% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.80

12.80 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.30 BlocksContext 3.90

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

68% Save rateContext 73%

53% PossessionIn forecast 45%

446 PassesContext 406

376 Accurate passesContext 326

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.00

9.10 FoulsContext 12.10

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km342 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel195 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	342 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

8S. Tonali 41J. Ramsey

7Joelinton 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

10A. Gordon

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 32J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

27I. Gueye 37J. Garner

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 7D. McNeil

9Beto

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-1.0 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Everton+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.77points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-4
Scored: 1.85
Conceded: 1.54

Everton · Away 1.62points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 6-3-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.92

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Everton
Manchester City	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Brentford	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A	L 2–4 H
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Points	33 of 78 · 1.27 per game	37 of 78 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Newcastle wins2 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 40%

29 Nov 2025Everton1–4Newcastle
25 May 2025Newcastle0–1Everton
5 Oct 2024Everton0–0Newcastle
2 Apr 2024Newcastle1–1Everton
7 Dec 2023Everton3–0Newcastle
27 Apr 2023Everton1–4Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.07
Conceded per game	1.44	1.15
Match goals	2.85	2.22	3.35
Over 1.5	74%	70%
Over 2.5	63%	33%	65%
Over 3.5	37%	11%
Both teams scored	63%	44%	63%
Clean sheets	26%	33%
Failed to score	26%	30%
Games	27	27

	Newcastle	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.70	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.20	3.35
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	65%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.85	4.48
Corners conceded	5.07	4.96
Match total	11.92	9.44	9.98
Over 8.5	81% 22/27	67% 18/27
Over 9.5	70% 19/27	44% 12/27
Over 10.5	59% 16/27	37% 10/27
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.04
Opponent cards	2.33	1.81
Match total	4.03	3.85	3.89
Over 3.5	56% 15/27	52% 14/27
Over 4.5	33% 9/27	44% 12/27

	Newcastle	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.80	4.56
Corners conceded	4.60	5.00
Match total	11.40	9.56	9.98
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.60	4.10	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 133 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.96league 3.75

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls20.9league 21.5

Penalties0.20league 0.22

Home wins49%league 42%

Newcastle15 with this referee

Record9-1-5 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

W6 Dec 25H · Burnley2–12
L9 Nov 25A · Brentford1–33
L18 Jan 25H · Bournemouth1–41
W21 Dec 24A · Ipswich4–00
W4 Nov 23H · Arsenal1–05

Everton18 with this referee

Record6-2-10 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W7 Feb 26A · Fulham2–15
W24 Aug 25H · Brighton2–04
D8 Mar 25A · Wolves1–12
D9 Nov 24A · West Ham0–02
L31 Aug 24H · Bournemouth2–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.