Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Newcastle55.6%fair odds 1.80
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Leeds20.9%fair odds 4.79
Expected goals1.87 – 1.07total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Newcastle ↓ · Leeds → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Newcastle goals, columns Leeds goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.00
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 1–09.3%10.77
- 2–09.2%10.84
- 3–16.2%16.18
- 0–05.8%17.21
- 3–05.8%17.35
- 1–25.7%17.67
- 2–25.3%18.86
- 0–15.1%19.72
Winning margin
15.3%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 6.55
17.2%
Newcastle by 2
fair 5.82
23.1%
Newcastle by 1
fair 4.33
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
13.0%
Leeds by 1
fair 7.71
5.6%
Leeds by 2
fair 17.78
2.3%
Leeds by 3+
fair 43.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
Newcastle goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Leeds goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 55.6% | 54.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.7% | -1.1 pp |
| Leeds win | 20.9% | 21.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 52.5% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 53.4% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.87 | 1.76 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.07 | 1.02 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Newcastle win55.6%1.80
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Leeds win20.9%4.79
- Double chance Newcastle or draw79.1%1.26
- Double chance Newcastle or Leeds76.4%1.31
- Double chance Leeds or draw44.4%2.25
- Draw no bet Newcastle72.7%1.38
- Draw no bet Leeds27.3%3.66
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.5%1.77
- Over 3.534.1%2.93
- Over 4.517.6%5.68
- Under 1.520.2%4.96
- Under 2.543.5%2.30
- Under 3.565.9%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.29
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Newcastle win and yes27.1%3.68
- Draw and yes17.8%5.63
- Leeds win and yes11.3%8.82
Team goals
- Newcastle over 0.584.7%1.18
- Newcastle over 1.555.9%1.79
- Newcastle over 2.528.9%3.45
- Leeds over 0.565.8%1.52
- Leeds over 1.529.1%3.44
- Leeds over 2.59.4%10.63
- Newcastle clean sheet34.2%2.92
- Leeds clean sheet15.3%6.52
- Newcastle win to nil28.4%3.52
- Leeds win to nil9.5%10.49
Handicap
- Newcastle −1.532.5%3.08
- Newcastle −2.515.3%6.55
- Leeds +1.567.5%1.48
- Leeds +2.584.7%1.18
- Leeds −1.57.9%12.66
- Newcastle +1.592.1%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored207
Favourite won52.7%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.600
Over 2.5 called right55.1%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 30 | 38.2% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.7% | 54.7% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.0% | 63.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 177 of 207 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5992 | 0.5865 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 52.5% | 53.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 177 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.