Newcastle vs Leeds – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 20:15 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 10th · 29 pts · 20 played LDLWW

4–3Full time

Leeds 16th · 22 pts · 20 played DWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 66). Newcastle had 3.2 days of rest, Leeds 3.3 and had to travel 131 km.

Away travel131 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Newcastle56%

Draw24%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.07

Newcastle54%

Draw25%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Newcastle56%

Draw24%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.07

Newcastle48%

Draw25%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.20

Newcastle54%

Draw25%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 80

Team strength

Newcastle

Leeds

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

61 AttackIn forecast 69

61 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Leeds

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

75% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 15%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.70

4.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 32%

8.15 Shots in the boxContext 8.55

62% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.08 OffsidesContext 1.94

10.75 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.71 BlocksContext 3.78

2.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.53

71% Save rateContext 65%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

452 PassesContext 407

376 Accurate passesContext 327

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.79 FoulsContext 10.15

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.45

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 13.20

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

43% On target shareContext 34%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

72% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.50 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.89 BlocksContext 4.40

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

70% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 44%

478 PassesContext 384

407 Accurate passesContext 300

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.84

7.33 FoulsContext 10.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km615 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel131 km455 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan	3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	131 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	615 km	455 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	10.7	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 5F. Schär 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 11H. Barnes

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

4E. Ampadu

3G. Gudmundsson 44I. Gruev 18A. Stach 24J. Justin

11B. Aaronson 9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Leeds+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 2.00points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.20

Leeds · Away 0.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-6
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Leeds
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 H
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Everton	W 4–1 A	W 1–0 H
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Brentford	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–5 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
Liverpool	L 2–3 H	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
Aston Villa	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Points	28 of 57 · 1.47 per game	21 of 57 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Newcastle wins4 draws2 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.43 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets43% · 29%

30 Aug 2025Leeds0–0Newcastle
13 May 2023Leeds2–2Newcastle
31 Dec 2022Newcastle0–0Leeds
22 Jan 2022Leeds0–1Newcastle
17 Sep 2021Newcastle1–1Leeds
26 Jan 2021Newcastle1–2Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.65
Match goals	2.60	2.95	2.95
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	35%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	65%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Failed to score	25%	30%
Games	20	20

	Newcastle	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.30	1.60
Match goals	3.10	3.30	2.95
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	90%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	6.35	4.83
Corners conceded	5.35	3.83
Match total	11.70	8.66	9.89
Over 8.5	75% 15/20	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	60% 12/20	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	50% 10/20	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.45
Opponent cards	2.45	1.55
Match total	3.85	3.00	3.85
Over 3.5	45% 9/20	35% 7/20
Over 4.5	30% 6/20	25% 5/20

	Newcastle	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	7.20	4.89
Corners conceded	6.30	4.78
Match total	13.50	9.67	9.89
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	3.10	1.60
Match total	4.80	3.00	3.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64league 3.70

Red cards0.21league 0.11

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls22.5league 21.4

Penalties0.29league 0.20

Home wins49%league 45%

Newcastle4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W26 Apr 25H · Ipswich3–01
W10 Mar 25A · West Ham1–01
D17 Feb 24H · Bournemouth2–21
D3 Sep 22H · Crystal Palace0–02

Leeds4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W1 Feb 25H · Cardiff7–00
W18 Mar 23A · Wolves4–25
L12 Nov 22A · Tottenham3–43
L27 Aug 22A · Brighton0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.