Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal – 17 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 17 · 17:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 17th · 21 pts · 21 played LLLLW

0–0Full time

Arsenal 1st · 49 pts · 21 played WWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 64). Nottingham Forest had 10.9 days of rest, Arsenal 8.9 and had to travel 175 km.

Away travel175 kmRest days10.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Nottingham Forest15%

Draw20%

Arsenal64%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.20

Nottingham Forest16%

Draw22%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.99

Nottingham Forest15%

Draw20%

Arsenal65%

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.18

Nottingham Forest11%

Draw17%

Arsenal72%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.46

Nottingham Forest16%

Draw22%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.01

Over 2.5 62% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 200

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

68 AttackIn forecast 86

74 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

52% Scored inContext 90%

14% Clean sheetsContext 48%

12.38 ShotsContext 14.90

4.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.05

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.95 Shots in the boxContext 11.29

65% Box shareContext 75%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.06

12.76 Shots allowedContext 7.90

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.71

4.53 BlocksContext 3.28

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

62% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 58%

436 PassesContext 492

362 Accurate passesContext 420

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.07

11.19 FoulsContext 9.95

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.71

1.62 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 2.00

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.40 ShotsContext 15.80

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

36% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

64% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.10 Shots allowedContext 10.00

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

4.10 BlocksContext 3.60

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

59% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

456 PassesContext 484

381 Accurate passesContext 413

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.08

11.40 FoulsContext 8.70

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest10.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel175 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Jan	8.9Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	350 km	301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	0 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

16N. Domínguez 10M. Gibbs-White 7C. Hudson-Odoi

19Igor Jesus

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

12J. Timber 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

11Gabriel Martinelli 14V. Gyökeres 20C. Madueke

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Arsenal-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 1.00points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-6
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.70

Arsenal · Away 2.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 0.90

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
West Ham	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H	W 2–0 H
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Everton	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A	W 1–0 A
Manchester City	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Fulham	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Tottenham	W 3–0 H	W 4–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Brighton	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Leeds	W 3–1 H	W 5–0 H
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Burnley	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 A
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	21 of 60 · 1.05 per game	46 of 60 · 2.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins1 draws5 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.43 – 2.14 Over 2.571% Both scored29% Clean sheets29% · 57%

13 Sep 2025Arsenal3–0Nottingham Forest
26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest0–0Arsenal
23 Nov 2024Arsenal3–0Nottingham Forest
30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest1–2Arsenal
12 Aug 2023Arsenal2–1Nottingham Forest
20 May 2023Nottingham Forest1–0Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.62	0.67
Match goals	2.62	2.57	3.18
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	48%	62%
Over 3.5	19%	24%
Both teams scored	38%	48%	56%
Clean sheets	14%	48%
Failed to score	48%	10%
Games	21	21

	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.90
Match goals	2.50	2.90	3.18
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.43	5.63
Corners conceded	4.48	3.32
Match total	9.91	8.95	9.90
Over 8.5	76% 16/21	47% 9/19
Over 9.5	62% 13/21	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	42% 8/19
Cards
Cards	1.62	1.38
Opponent cards	1.95	1.86
Match total	3.57	3.24	3.89
Over 3.5	43% 9/21	48% 10/21
Over 4.5	24% 5/21	19% 4/21

	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.63
Corners conceded	4.40	4.00
Match total	9.90	8.63	9.90
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.90
Match total	4.30	3.40	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.75

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 39%

Fouls22.4league 21.3

Penalties0.27league 0.20

Home wins42%league 46%

Nottingham Forest12 with this referee

Record4-1-7 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 1

L30 Dec 25H · Everton0–21
L30 Nov 25H · Brighton0–20
W21 Dec 24A · Brentford2–04
L4 Dec 24A · Manchester City0–34
W14 Sep 24A · Liverpool1–04

Arsenal26 with this referee

Record18-3-5 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds4

W23 Nov 25H · Tottenham4–11
W25 Jan 25A · Wolves1–02
D10 Nov 24A · Chelsea1–12
D22 Sep 24A · Manchester City2–26
W24 Aug 24A · Aston Villa2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.