Premier League Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 23 · 15:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel253 kmRest days7 · 1.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Nottingham Forest—%
Draw—%
Bournemouth—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Nottingham ForestBournemouth
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
68 AttackIn forecast 83
74 DefenceIn forecast 82
41 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham ForestBournemouth
0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.85 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
43% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
17.14 ShotsContext 15.14
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
21% On target shareContext 34%
10.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.57
61% Box shareContext 64%
4% ConversionContext 9%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.57 Shots allowedContext 9.57
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.00 BlocksContext 2.80
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 55%
46% PossessionIn forecast 52%
370 PassesContext 433
292 Accurate passesContext 351
79% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.80
14.14 FoulsContext 13.00
11.57 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.66 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
60% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.30 ShotsContext 15.80
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
25% On target shareContext 32%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
65% Box shareContext 62%
6% ConversionContext 10%
2.11 OffsidesContext 2.00
13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.30
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11
4.40 BlocksContext 3.29
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
70% Save rateContext 61%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
388 PassesContext 434
309 Accurate passesContext 353
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.86
13.10 FoulsContext 12.20
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km186 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts
Bournemouth
Rest1.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel253 km2,619 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Nottingham Forest Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 16 Jan1.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km253 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways186 km2,619 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 52 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one75.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair
3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Nottingham Forest Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.75
Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentNottingham ForestBournemouth
Liverpool D 2–2 A L 0–1 H
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Nottingham Forest wins4 draws6 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.00 Over 2.540% Both scored70% Clean sheets0% · 30%
  • 24 May 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
  • 26 Oct 2025Bournemouth2–0Nottingham Forest
  • 25 Jan 2025Bournemouth5–0Nottingham Forest
  • 17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
  • 4 Feb 2024Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
  • 23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Nottingham ForestBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 0.711.29
Conceded per game 1.291.86
Match goals 2.003.14
Over 1.5 43%86%
Over 2.5 43%57%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 43%71%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 57%14%
Games77
Nottingham ForestBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 0.901.50
Conceded per game 1.401.50
Match goals 2.303.00
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Nottingham ForestBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won4.714.71
Corners conceded4.863.86
Match total9.578.579.49
Over 8.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 9.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.293.00
Opponent cards1.711.57
Match total4.004.574.17
Over 3.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Nottingham ForestBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won4.704.60
Corners conceded4.504.60
Match total9.209.209.49
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.002.80
Opponent cards1.501.80
Match total3.504.604.17
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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