Panathinaikos vs Real Betis – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

Panathinaikos

1–0Full time

Real Betis

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Panathinaikos. Panathinaikos had 14 days of rest, Real Betis 4.1 and had to travel 2,603 km.

Away travel2,603 kmRest days14 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Panathinaikos36%

Draw27%

Real Betis37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.38

Panathinaikos32%

Draw27%

Real Betis41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Panathinaikos38%

Draw27%

Real Betis35%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.28

Panathinaikos29%

Draw26%

Real Betis45%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.55

Panathinaikos35%

Draw28%

Real Betis37%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.34

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Athens)

No weather data yet

RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 68

Team strength

Panathinaikos

Real Betis

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

48 AttackIn forecast 79

50 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Panathinaikos

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Panathinaikos

Real Betis

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.84 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

100% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.80

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

42% On target shareContext 29%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 53%

18% ConversionContext 9%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.71

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.44 BlocksContext 3.10

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

77% Save rateContext 72%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

437 PassesContext 446

352 Accurate passesContext 378

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.85

14.20 FoulsContext 10.80

15.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Panathinaikos

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,087 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,603 km757 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Panathinaikos	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,603 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,087 km	757 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40A. Lafont(G)

3G. Katris 15S. Ingason 2D. Calabria

77G. Kyriakopoulos 16A. Gnezda Čerin 8R. Luz Sanches 9A. Zaroury

20V. Taborda 7A. Tetteh 28F. Pellistri

+17 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

12R. Rodríguez 4Natan 3Diego Llorente 24Aitor Ruibal

21Marc Roca 6Sergi Altimira

10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 7Antony

19C. Hernández

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Panathinaikos Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Panathinaikos-2.3 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Real Betis+2.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Panathinaikos · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Betis · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Panathinaikos	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Panathinaikos	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	2.60	2.50	2.72
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Panathinaikos	Real Betis
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Panathinaikos	Real Betis
Corners
Corners won	3.88	3.90
Corners conceded	3.63	4.80
Match total	7.51	8.70
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.60	3.10
Match total	5.30	5.30
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Szymon Marciniak 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10

Red cards0.07

Cards 5+43%

Fouls24.1

Penalties0.32

Home wins53%

Panathinaikos

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.