Racing Santander
Attack+8%
Defense risk−20%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Espanyol. Racing Santander have 6.1 days of rest, Espanyol 7.1 and have to travel 537 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel537 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Racing Santander37%
Draw26%
Espanyol37%
Racing Santander42%
Draw27%
Espanyol31%
Racing Santander37%
Draw26%
Espanyol37%
Racing Santander30%
Draw25%
Espanyol45%
Racing Santander37%
Draw24%
Espanyol38%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Santander)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 8%
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 54%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Racing Santander and Espanyol. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Racing Santander
3.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Racing Santander
−0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.17
-
Alert
Racing Santander
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Racing Santander
3.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Racing Santander
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Racing Santander
−0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.17
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Racing SantanderEspanyol
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
42
AttackIn forecast
36
22
DefenceIn forecast
51
34
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack+46%
Defense risk−14%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Racing SantanderEspanyol
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
2.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
67%
Scored inContext
89%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.22
ShotsContext
12.67
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
40%
On target shareContext
29%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
54%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
3.50
16.33
Shots allowedContext
13.11
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.56
BlocksContext
3.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.71
61%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
437
PassesContext
376
362
Accurate passesContext
305
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.78
FoulsContext
16.00
14.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.44
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
2.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
39%
On target shareContext
31%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
57%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.14
15.90
Shots allowedContext
12.70
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
3.40
BlocksContext
2.78
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
62%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
441
PassesContext
379
367
Accurate passesContext
308
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.40
FoulsContext
15.50
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Racing Santander
WLLDL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km379 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel537 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Racing Santander |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct | 7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 379 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Racing Santander
Last XI · not confirmed
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
24J. Belocian
5Pablo Ramón
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
8André Almeida
20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Racing Santander
No reported absences
Espanyol
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Racing Santander+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Espanyol+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Racing Santander · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Espanyol · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Racing Santander | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Racing Santander | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.22 | 2.56 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Racing Santander | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.78 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.22 | 2.50 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 10% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Racing Santander | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 8.85 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 3.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 5.45 | 6.00 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Racing Santander | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 8.76 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Racing Santander9 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
7
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
76-90
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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