La Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Deportivo La Coruna 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Atletico Madrid are clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid have 4 days of rest, Deportivo La Coruna 8 and have to travel 509 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel509 kmRest days4 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Atletico Madrid71%
Draw18%
Deportivo La Coruna11%
Expected goals 2.28 – 0.78
Atletico Madrid69%
Draw19%
Deportivo La Coruna12%
Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81
Atletico Madrid71%
Draw18%
Deportivo La Coruna11%
Expected goals 2.28 – 0.78
Atletico Madrid64%
Draw21%
Deportivo La Coruna15%
Expected goals 2.03 – 0.87
Atletico Madrid71%
Draw18%
Deportivo La Coruna11%
Expected goals 2.36 – 0.82
Over 2.5 59% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
13°CMainly clear
  • Precipitation 0%
  • Wind 4 km/h
  • Humidity 71%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Atletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna
81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
82 AttackIn forecast 40
87 DefenceIn forecast 57
96 Form indexContext 21
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack+3%
Defense risk−15%

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack−28%
Defense risk+38%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Atletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna
2.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
89% Scored inContext 89%
44% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.56 ShotsContext 11.67
6.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
37% On target shareContext 37%
10.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
60% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71
9.56 Shots allowedContext 12.56
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
2.89 BlocksContext 3.11
2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 69%
60% PossessionIn forecast 48%
590 PassesContext 444
521 Accurate passesContext 376
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.79
12.11 FoulsContext 13.00
11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89
2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.10 ShotsContext 11.10
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
37% On target shareContext 38%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
58% Box shareContext 66%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.20 OffsidesContext 1.63
10.20 Shots allowedContext 11.80
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
2.90 BlocksContext 3.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 69%
60% PossessionIn forecast 48%
588 PassesContext 455
517 Accurate passesContext 389
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.77
11.30 FoulsContext 12.80
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,748 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel509 km1,038 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
  • D16 OctH · Levante1–11.6 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Sociedad2–31.1 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Atletico Madrid Deportivo La Coruna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct8La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km509 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,748 km1,038 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 40 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.89

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David
Deportivo La Coruna Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Levante (H) 1–1, 16 Oct
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo 10Peke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Atletico Madrid No reported absences
Deportivo La Coruna No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Deportivo La Coruna+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.75
Deportivo La Coruna · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAtletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad W 3–0 A L 2–3 A
Sevilla W 3–1 A L 0–1 H
Villarreal D 2–2 H W 3–2 A
Malaga W 2–0 H D 1–1 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Atletico MadridDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 2.111.44
Conceded per game 0.891.33
Match goals 3.002.78 3.05
Over 1.5 89%89%
Over 2.5 78%33% 59%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 44%89% 49%
Clean sheets 44%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
Atletico MadridDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 2.001.44
Conceded per game 1.001.33
Match goals 3.002.78 3.05
Over 1.5 90%89%
Over 2.5 80%33% 59%
Over 3.5 30%33%
Both teams scored 50%89% 49%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Atletico MadridDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.575.22
Corners conceded3.575.44
Match total9.1410.669.91
Over 8.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 10.543% 3/733% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.332.11
Opponent cards1.892.00
Match total4.224.114.73
Over 3.567% 6/978% 7/9
Over 4.544% 4/933% 3/9
Atletico MadridDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.80
Corners conceded4.255.40
Match total9.2510.209.91
Over 8.550% 4/850% 5/10
Over 9.550% 4/850% 5/10
Over 10.550% 4/830% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.00
Opponent cards1.701.80
Match total3.903.804.73
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Alaves Malaga Oct 2320:00 Rayo Vallecano Elche Oct 2413:00 Racing Santander Espanyol Oct 2415:15 Valencia Villarreal Oct 2417:30 Atletico Madrid Deportivo La Coruna Oct 2420:00 Athletic Club Getafe Oct 2513:00 Celta Vigo Real Betis Oct 2515:15 Real Sociedad Levante Oct 2517:30 Barcelona Real Madrid Oct 2520:00 Sevilla Osasuna Oct 2620:00