Celta Vigo
Attack+5%
Defense risk+20%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Real Betis are the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 54). Real Betis come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Celta Vigo have 2.8 days of rest, Real Betis 3.8 and have to travel 588 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel588 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 4
Celta Vigo34%
Draw26%
Real Betis40%
Celta Vigo32%
Draw27%
Real Betis41%
Celta Vigo34%
Draw26%
Real Betis40%
Celta Vigo27%
Draw25%
Real Betis48%
Celta Vigo31%
Draw25%
Real Betis44%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 37 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
18°COvercast
- Precipitation 50%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 84%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celta Vigo and Real Betis. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Real Betis
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Real Betis
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Real Betis
2.1
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Real Betis
2.1
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Real Betis
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Real Betis
10+
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Real Betis
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Real Betis
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Real Betis
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Team strength
Celta VigoReal Betis
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
36
AttackIn forecast
79
61
DefenceIn forecast
59
47
Form indexContext
80
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack−1%
Defense risk−18%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Celta VigoReal Betis
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
56%
Scored inContext
100%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
9.44
ShotsContext
16.44
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
34%
On target shareContext
39%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
47%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.33
Shots allowedContext
15.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.22
3.44
BlocksContext
3.78
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
80%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
506
PassesContext
495
438
Accurate passesContext
429
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.22
FoulsContext
9.89
14.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
16.70
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
32%
On target shareContext
37%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
50%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.50
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
77%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
497
PassesContext
504
431
Accurate passesContext
438
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.90
FoulsContext
10.70
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
LWDLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,099 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Real Betis
WDWWL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel588 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load41%High
Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | High · 41 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,099 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 4 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Last XI · not confirmed
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Real Betis
Last XI · not confirmed
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García
16Valentín Gómez
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
25Dani Ceballos
6F. Bernal
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
20G. Lo Celso
9C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
No reported absences
Real Betis
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Betis+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Real Betis · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 H | W 5–2 H |
| Valencia | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
5 Celta Vigo wins4 draws1 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 15 Mar 2026Real Betis1–1Celta Vigo
- 27 Aug 2025Celta Vigo1–1Real Betis
- 8 Feb 2025Celta Vigo3–2Real Betis
- 10 Nov 2024Real Betis2–2Celta Vigo
- 12 Apr 2024Real Betis2–1Celta Vigo
- 3 Jan 2024Celta Vigo2–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Celta Vigo | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 11.22 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 4.34 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Celta Vigo | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.80 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Real Betis9 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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