Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played WLWDD

VS— Compare

Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played DLWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano are slight favourites.

Rayo Vallecano are the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano have 4.7 days of rest, Elche 6.9 and have to travel 352 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel352 kmRest days4.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Rayo Vallecano54%

Draw24%

Elche22%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.08

Rayo Vallecano52%

Draw25%

Elche23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Rayo Vallecano54%

Draw24%

Elche22%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.08

Rayo Vallecano47%

Draw26%

Elche28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.21

Rayo Vallecano55%

Draw23%

Elche22%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.14

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

15°COvercast

Precipitation 0%
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 48%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Rayo Vallecano 8 Scoring in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Elche

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

61 AttackIn forecast 39

60 DefenceIn forecast 51

66 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack+10%

Defense risk−15%

Elche

Attack0%

Defense risk+4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Elche

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

100% Scored inContext 67%

0% Clean sheetsContext 22%

14.38 ShotsContext 11.00

4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

32% On target shareContext 38%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 6.44

55% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.88 Shots allowedContext 14.89

5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.63

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

61% Save rateContext 60%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

406 PassesContext 478

334 Accurate passesContext 408

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.64

12.88 FoulsContext 13.44

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.00 ShotsContext 10.20

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

32% On target shareContext 38%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.44

52% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.70 Shots allowedContext 14.40

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

4.30 BlocksContext 3.44

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

67% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

403 PassesContext 463

331 Accurate passesContext 391

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.20 FoulsContext 14.10

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano WLWDD

Rest4.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km25 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts

Elche DLWDD

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel352 km387 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.7La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Oct	6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	25 km	387 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Osasuna (A) 1–1, 19 Sep

25E. Audero(G)

17Adrià Pedrosa 24F. Lejeune 15Mujaid Sadick 2A. Rațiu

23Óscar Valentín 6P. Ciss 8Unai López

18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 19Jorge de Frutos

Elche Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1M. Dituro(G)

11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré

18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar

21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano No reported absences

Elche No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Elche+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Elche · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
Espanyol	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 A
Real Madrid	L 1–4 A	L 2–3 H
Racing Santander	W 3–2 H	L 2–3 A
Barcelona	L 2–5 A	L 0–5 H
Points	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws3 Elche wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

3 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano1–0Elche
21 Dec 2025Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano
29 Apr 2023Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano
3 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche
18 Feb 2022Elche2–1Rayo Vallecano
17 Oct 2021Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.22
Conceded per game	2.13	1.89
Match goals	3.63	3.11	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	63%	56%	56%
Over 3.5	38%	56%
Both teams scored	100%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	8	9

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.80
Match goals	3.40	3.00	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.56
Corners conceded	6.38	4.67
Match total	12.01	9.23	9.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.44
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	5.25	4.44	4.73
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	56% 5/9

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.20
Corners conceded	6.50	4.40
Match total	11.60	8.60	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	2.20
Match total	5.70	4.80	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.