Sevilla vs Osasuna – 26 Oct 2026

La Liga Gameweek 10 Mon, Oct 26 · 20:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played WWLDL

VS— Compare

Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played LLDLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sevilla are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Sevilla have 8 days of rest, Osasuna 8.3 and have to travel 707 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel707 kmRest days8 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sevilla45%

Draw26%

Osasuna28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.18

Sevilla46%

Draw26%

Osasuna28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Sevilla45%

Draw26%

Osasuna28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.18

Sevilla38%

Draw27%

Osasuna35%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.33

Sevilla47%

Draw25%

Osasuna28%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.30

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

21°CClear

Precipitation 6%
Wind 1 km/h
Humidity 46%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Sevilla 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Sevilla

Osasuna

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

48 AttackIn forecast 50

57 DefenceIn forecast 50

67 Form indexContext 31

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack+9%

Defense risk−9%

Osasuna

Attack+1%

Defense risk−11%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Sevilla

Osasuna

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

100% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.78 ShotsContext 10.78

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

37% On target shareContext 40%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

61% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.67 Shots allowedContext 13.22

5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.29 BlocksContext 3.89

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

60% Save rateContext 51%

41% PossessionIn forecast 46%

344 PassesContext 390

267 Accurate passesContext 316

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.54

14.67 FoulsContext 14.67

12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 10.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

36% On target shareContext 41%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

59% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.00 BlocksContext 3.70

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

60% Save rateContext 53%

42% PossessionIn forecast 46%

353 PassesContext 373

278 Accurate passesContext 298

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.54

15.20 FoulsContext 15.20

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla WWLDL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Osasuna LLDLW

Rest8.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel707 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct	8.3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	707 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias

24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé

20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas

9R. Ure

Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

13Aitor Fernández(G)

23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier

16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola

21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla No reported absences

Osasuna No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Osasuna+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Osasuna · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 3.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Osasuna
Levante	D 3–3 A	D 0–0 H
Espanyol	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Atletico Madrid	L 1–3 H	L 0–4 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Sevilla wins4 draws4 Osasuna wins

Goals per game0.90 – 1.00 Over 2.530% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 30%

26 Apr 2026Osasuna2–1Sevilla
8 Nov 2025Sevilla1–0Osasuna
24 Apr 2025Osasuna1–0Sevilla
2 Dec 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
28 Jan 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
23 Sep 2023Osasuna0–0Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.11
Conceded per game	1.78	2.00
Match goals	3.33	3.11	2.74
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	67%	44%	52%
Over 3.5	56%	33%
Both teams scored	78%	44%	55%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	9	9

	Sevilla	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.70	1.90
Match goals	3.10	2.90	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.56	4.50
Match total	6.56	8.50	9.91
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	3.33	2.67
Opponent cards	2.11	2.00
Match total	5.44	4.67	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Sevilla	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.60	4.22
Match total	6.60	8.22	9.91
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.60
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	5.10	4.50	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.