Valencia vs Villarreal

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 24 · 17:30 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played LWLDD

VS— Compare

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal are slight favourites.

Villarreal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Villarreal. Valencia have 6.9 days of rest, Villarreal 3.9 and have to travel 57 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel57 kmRest days6.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 4

Valencia29%

Draw26%

Villarreal45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.59

Valencia34%

Draw27%

Villarreal38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.38

Valencia29%

Draw26%

Villarreal45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.59

Valencia23%

Draw24%

Villarreal53%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.78

Valencia27%

Draw24%

Villarreal49%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.78

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 65%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Valencia

Villarreal

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

39 AttackIn forecast 76

52 DefenceIn forecast 73

36 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack−7%

Defense risk+17%

Villarreal

Attack+7%

Defense risk−16%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Valencia

Villarreal

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.69

44% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.11 ShotsContext 16.33

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

24% On target shareContext 39%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.11

58% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.89

15.11 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

4.00 BlocksContext 5.14

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

70% Save rateContext 77%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

422 PassesContext 573

346 Accurate passesContext 510

82% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.89 FoulsContext 11.11

11.44 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.90 ShotsContext 16.50

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

25% On target shareContext 36%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

59% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.90

14.70 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.78 BlocksContext 4.63

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

70% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

400 PassesContext 560

326 Accurate passesContext 493

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.90 FoulsContext 10.40

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia LWLDD

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,055 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel57 km3,649 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,055 km	3,649 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo

2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu

7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba

9Hugo Duro

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia No reported absences

Villarreal No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Villarreal+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 0.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.80

Villarreal · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Villarreal
Racing Santander	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Alaves	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Deportivo La Coruna	L 1–3 A	L 2–3 H
Real Betis	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Valencia wins3 draws5 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.30 Over 2.530% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

22 Feb 2026Villarreal2–1Valencia
25 Oct 2025Valencia0–2Villarreal
15 Feb 2025Villarreal1–1Valencia
31 Aug 2024Valencia1–1Villarreal
17 Mar 2024Villarreal1–0Valencia
2 Jan 2024Valencia3–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.44
Conceded per game	1.67	1.44
Match goals	2.33	2.89	2.84
Over 1.5	44%	67%
Over 2.5	44%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	44%	56%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	33%	11%
Failed to score	56%	33%
Games	9	9

	Valencia	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.60
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.10	2.84
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.11
Corners conceded	4.44	4.44
Match total	8.44	11.55	9.91
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.22	1.78
Opponent cards	2.22	3.00
Match total	4.44	4.78	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Valencia	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	6.50
Corners conceded	4.80	4.70
Match total	9.10	11.20	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.90
Match total	4.40	4.60	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.