Real Sociedad vs Levante

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 25 · 17:30 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

VS— Compare

Levante 17th · 7 pts · 8 played DLLDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad are slight favourites.

Real Sociedad are the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Real Sociedad have 2.9 days of rest, Levante 4 and have to travel 447 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel447 kmRest days2.9 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real Sociedad51%

Draw23%

Levante26%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.33

Real Sociedad49%

Draw26%

Levante25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.09

Real Sociedad51%

Draw23%

Levante26%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.33

Real Sociedad43%

Draw24%

Levante33%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.49

Real Sociedad52%

Draw22%

Levante26%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.45

Over 2.5 64% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

17°CDrizzle

Precipitation 59%
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 91%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Sociedad 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Levante

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

62 AttackIn forecast 55

48 DefenceIn forecast 41

81 Form indexContext 29

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack+17%

Defense risk−5%

Levante

Attack+11%

Defense risk+4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Levante

1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01

+0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

67% Scored inContext 63%

11% Clean sheetsContext 25%

14.11 ShotsContext 11.88

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.86

39% On target shareContext 36%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.71

56% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.25

16.56 Shots allowedContext 15.25

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63

4.00 BlocksContext 3.38

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

73% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

467 PassesContext 381

399 Accurate passesContext 309

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.11 FoulsContext 9.88

9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 8 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.80 ShotsContext 12.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

38% On target shareContext 36%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

55% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.90 BlocksContext 3.56

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

70% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 42%

481 PassesContext 359

410 Accurate passesContext 291

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.40 FoulsContext 9.60

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km7,583 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Levante DLLDD

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel447 km1,592 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected

D16 OctA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts
D12 OctH · Sevilla3–31.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Villarreal1–30.9 xPts
L13 SepH · Barcelona2–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Malaga0–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	4La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	447 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	7,583 km	1,592 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Levante Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Deportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1, 16 Oct

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 3Ifeanyi Ndukwe 4Adrián de la Fuente 29Nacho Pérez

6Reque 20Oriol Rey 18E. Bardeli

24T. Fernandez 9Iván Romero 7Roger Brugué

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad No reported absences

Levante No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Levante+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Levante · Away 0.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-2
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Levante
Malaga	W 5–2 A	D 0–0 A
Deportivo La Coruna	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 A
Real Betis	L 0–1 A	W 5–2 H
Points	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Real Sociedad wins1 draws2 Levante wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

4 Apr 2026Real Sociedad2–0Levante
20 Dec 2025Levante1–1Real Sociedad
6 May 2022Levante2–1Real Sociedad
28 Aug 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
7 Mar 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
19 Dec 2020Levante2–1Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.89	1.50
Conceded per game	1.89	2.00
Match goals	3.78	3.50	3.29
Over 1.5	78%	75%
Over 2.5	78%	63%	64%
Over 3.5	56%	50%
Both teams scored	67%	63%	64%
Clean sheets	11%	25%
Failed to score	33%	38%
Games	9	8

	Real Sociedad	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.80
Match goals	3.80	3.30	3.29
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	3.86
Corners conceded	4.89	5.71
Match total	11.89	9.57	9.91
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.25
Opponent cards	2.56	2.50
Match total	4.89	3.75	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	38% 3/8
Over 4.5	78% 7/9	25% 2/8

	Real Sociedad	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	4.33
Corners conceded	4.70	5.56
Match total	11.70	9.89	9.91
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	4.60	3.70	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.