Alaves
Attack+32%
Defense risk−24%
Our take
Alaves are slight favourites.
Alaves are the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alaves. Alaves have 5.2 days of rest, Malaga 5.1 and have to travel 698 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel698 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves57%
Draw23%
Malaga19%
Alaves48%
Draw26%
Malaga26%
Alaves57%
Draw23%
Malaga19%
Alaves50%
Draw25%
Malaga25%
Alaves60%
Draw22%
Malaga19%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
9°COvercast
- Precipitation 0%
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 87%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Malaga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Malaga
−0.84
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.84xG against1.68
-
Alert
Malaga
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Malaga
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Malaga
−0.84
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.84xG against1.68
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AlavesMalaga
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
48
AttackIn forecast
28
55
DefenceIn forecast
31
14
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalaga
Attack+3%
Defense risk−11%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
AlavesMalaga
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
78%
Scored inContext
56%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
12.78
ShotsContext
11.33
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
27%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
62%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
3.88
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.33
Shots allowedContext
14.89
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
4.50
BlocksContext
4.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
74%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
340
PassesContext
481
270
Accurate passesContext
417
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.67
FoulsContext
11.56
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
40%
On target shareContext
28%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
3.78
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
4.22
BlocksContext
3.70
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
74%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
341
PassesContext
474
271
Accurate passesContext
408
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.60
FoulsContext
10.90
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
LLDLL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,001 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
Malaga
DLLDL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel698 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Malaga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct | 5.1La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 698 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,001 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Last XI · not confirmed
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Malaga
Last XI · not confirmed
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
15Ángel Recio
20F. Calero Villa
31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez
8Carlos Dotor
23Izan Merino
10David Larrubia
9Chupe
21Adrián Niño
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
No reported absences
Malaga
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Malaga+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Malaga · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.67 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Alaves | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.67 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 44% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 10.45 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.77 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Alaves | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.80 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures La Liga
View all fixtures →Alaves
Malaga
Oct 2320:00
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Oct 2413:00
Racing Santander
Espanyol
Oct 2415:15
Valencia
Villarreal
Oct 2417:30
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La Coruna
Oct 2420:00
Athletic Club
Getafe
Oct 2513:00
Celta Vigo
Real Betis
Oct 2515:15
Real Sociedad
Levante
Oct 2517:30
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Oct 2520:00
Sevilla
Osasuna
Oct 2620:00