Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Tottenham
16th · 29 pts · 28 played
DLLLL
1–3Full time
Crystal Palace
14th · 35 pts · 28 played
DWLWL
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Tottenham had 4.3 days of rest, Crystal Palace 4.3 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days4.3 · 4.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Tottenham46%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace29%
Tottenham45%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace28%
Tottenham46%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace29%
Tottenham38%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace36%
Tottenham45%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace29%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 132
Team strength
TottenhamCrystal Palace
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
56
AttackIn forecast
64
74
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamCrystal Palace
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
82%
Scored inContext
71%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
10.96
ShotsContext
11.75
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.74
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
68%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.21
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.54
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.59
BlocksContext
3.04
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
66%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
416
PassesContext
391
339
Accurate passesContext
303
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.46
FoulsContext
10.54
9.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
11.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.75
14.80
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.70
BlocksContext
2.56
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
57%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
434
PassesContext
484
359
Accurate passesContext
391
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.20
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.9 | 9.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
38Souza
29P. Sarr
6João Palhinha
14A. Gray
11M. Tel
39R. Kolo Muani
19D. Solanke
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
34C. Riad
26Chris Richards
23J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
29E. Guessand
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-8
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.57
Crystal Palace · Away
1.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| West Ham | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 81 · 0.96 per game | 35 of 81 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Tottenham wins0 draws3 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.90
Over 2.560%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 28 Dec 2025Crystal Palace0–1Tottenham
- 11 May 2025Tottenham0–2Crystal Palace
- 27 Oct 2024Crystal Palace1–0Tottenham
- 2 Mar 2024Tottenham3–1Crystal Palace
- 27 Oct 2023Crystal Palace1–2Tottenham
- 6 May 2023Tottenham1–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.29 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 46% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.30 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.31 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 9.04 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.68 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.11 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 16/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.34 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.78
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 21.6
Penalties0.15league 0.21
Home wins46%league 42%
Tottenham10 with this referee
Record5-1-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Jan 26A · Brentford0–02
- L16 Mar 25A · Fulham0–20
- L4 Jan 25H · Newcastle1–21
- W19 Oct 24H · West Ham4–11
- W19 May 24A · Sheffield Utd3–00
Crystal Palace14 with this referee
Record4-4-6
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds3
- D7 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–02
- D5 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–12
- D2 Apr 25A · Southampton1–11
- W15 Jan 25A · Leicester2–00
- L28 Sep 24A · Everton1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham28 games · scored 38 · conceded 43
3
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
8
14
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
4
61-75
10
11
76-90
Crystal Palace28 games · scored 30 · conceded 34
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
8
12
31-45
1
6
46-60
7
6
61-75
7
8
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
