Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 7 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played LWWWW

VS— Compare

Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 12). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain have 4 days of rest, Estac Troyes 7 and have to travel 142 km.

Away travel142 kmRest days4 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Paris Saint Germain95%

Draw4%

Estac Troyes1%

Expected goals 4.52 – 0.56

Paris Saint Germain93%

Draw6%

Estac Troyes2%

Expected goals 3.79 – 0.47

Paris Saint Germain95%

Draw4%

Estac Troyes1%

Expected goals 4.52 – 0.56

Paris Saint Germain92%

Draw6%

Estac Troyes2%

Expected goals 4.03 – 0.62

Paris Saint Germain94%

Draw4%

Estac Troyes1%

Expected goals 4.38 – 0.57

Over 2.5 88% Both score 42% Likeliest score 4–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Estac Troyes

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

91 AttackIn forecast 12

83 DefenceIn forecast 19

96 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack+33%

Defense risk−35%

Estac Troyes

Attack−37%

Defense risk+100%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Estac Troyes

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

2.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

100% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

20.57 ShotsContext 14.29

7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

35% On target shareContext 21%

11.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

56% Box shareContext 73%

10% ConversionContext 5%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.86 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

2.17 BlocksContext 3.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

83% Save rateContext 55%

68% PossessionIn forecast 39%

708 PassesContext 359

637 Accurate passesContext 287

90% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.52

5.71 FoulsContext 12.29

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.71

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

100% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

21.50 ShotsContext 12.10

7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

36% On target shareContext 25%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

56% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 7%

3.33 OffsidesContext 2.56

11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.22 BlocksContext 3.10

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

78% Save rateContext 63%

67% PossessionIn forecast 39%

702 PassesContext 351

632 Accurate passesContext 279

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.61

7.00 FoulsContext 11.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain WWWWW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,376 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected

W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Estac Troyes LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel142 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,376 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

39M. Safonov(G)

12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves

7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

33P. Beach(G)

5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

29D. Karim 8M. Diop

23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain No reported absences

Estac Troyes No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estac Troyes+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Estac Troyes · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes
Strasbourg	W 3–1 A	L 2–6 H
Marseille	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 H
Lille	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws0 Estac Troyes wins

Goals per game2.75 – 1.75 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

7 May 2023Estac Troyes1–3Paris Saint Germain
29 Oct 2022Paris Saint Germain4–3Estac Troyes
8 May 2022Paris Saint Germain2–2Estac Troyes
7 Aug 2021Estac Troyes1–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.71
Conceded per game	1.29	2.29
Match goals	3.29	3.00	5.08
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	43%	88%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	43%	42%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	0%	57%
Games	7	7

	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	0.71
Conceded per game	1.40	2.29
Match goals	3.90	3.00	5.08
Over 1.5	90%	86%
Over 2.5	90%	43%	88%
Over 3.5	60%	29%
Both teams scored	90%	43%	42%
Clean sheets	10%	14%
Failed to score	0%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	6.50
Corners conceded	3.25	2.50
Match total	8.00	9.00	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.57
Opponent cards	2.43	1.29
Match total	3.43	2.86	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7

	Paris Saint Germain	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	5.33
Corners conceded	4.14	4.78
Match total	9.71	10.11	9.63
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.40
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	3.30	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.