Marseille
Attack−8%
Defense risk+1%
Our take
Marseille are slight favourites.
Marseille are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Marseille have 7.1 days of rest, Toulouse 8.2 and have to travel 320 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel320 kmRest days7.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Marseille47%
Draw24%
Toulouse29%
Marseille49%
Draw26%
Toulouse25%
Marseille47%
Draw24%
Toulouse29%
Marseille39%
Draw25%
Toulouse36%
Marseille46%
Draw25%
Toulouse29%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
12°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 8%
- Wind 22 km/h
- Humidity 72%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Marseille and Toulouse. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Marseille
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
MarseilleToulouse
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
48
AttackIn forecast
45
46
DefenceIn forecast
49
41
Form indexContext
54
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack−5%
Defense risk+8%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
MarseilleToulouse
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.14
ShotsContext
13.57
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.17
15.86
Shots allowedContext
14.43
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.83
BlocksContext
4.00
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
73%
Save rateContext
65%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
587
PassesContext
500
521
Accurate passesContext
430
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.71
FoulsContext
15.43
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
63%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.29
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.78
BlocksContext
4.33
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
70%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
547
PassesContext
428
481
Accurate passesContext
366
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.20
FoulsContext
14.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
LLWLW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,784 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Toulouse
LDWDW
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel320 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 8.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,784 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Toulouse
Last XI · not confirmed
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
No reported absences
Toulouse
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Toulouse+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Toulouse · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Marseille wins3 draws0 Toulouse wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 7 Mar 2026Toulouse0–1Marseille
- 29 Nov 2025Marseille2–2Toulouse
- 6 Apr 2025Marseille3–2Toulouse
- 31 Aug 2024Toulouse1–3Marseille
- 21 Apr 2024Toulouse2–2Marseille
- 17 Sep 2023Marseille0–0Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.29 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Marseille | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Marseille | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Marseille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
