Toulouse
Attack+1%
Defense risk−1%
Our take
Toulouse are slight favourites.
Strasbourg are the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Toulouse have 5 days of rest, Strasbourg 5.2 and have to travel 736 km.
Away travel736 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse49%
Draw24%
Strasbourg27%
Toulouse40%
Draw27%
Strasbourg33%
Toulouse49%
Draw24%
Strasbourg27%
Toulouse41%
Draw25%
Strasbourg34%
Toulouse49%
Draw24%
Strasbourg27%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
Forecast from 22 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Toulouse and Strasbourg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Strasbourg
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Strasbourg
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Strasbourg
−0.72
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.21xG against1.93
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Strasbourg
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Strasbourg
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Strasbourg
6
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Strasbourg
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Strasbourg
−0.72
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.21xG against1.93
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
ToulouseStrasbourg
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
45
AttackIn forecast
40
49
DefenceIn forecast
37
54
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack−7%
Defense risk+1%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
ToulouseStrasbourg
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.18
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.85
71%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.57
ShotsContext
12.29
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
41%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
65%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.43
Shots allowedContext
16.43
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.14
4.00
BlocksContext
5.33
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
65%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
500
PassesContext
435
430
Accurate passesContext
377
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.43
FoulsContext
11.14
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.43
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
42%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
62%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.33
BlocksContext
5.44
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
428
PassesContext
454
366
Accurate passesContext
393
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.60
FoulsContext
10.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
LDWDW
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km639 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Strasbourg
WDLLL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel736 km1,395 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 Nov | 5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 736 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 639 km | 1,395 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Last XI · not confirmed
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Strasbourg
Last XI · not confirmed
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
31Karim Coulibaly
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
21Pape Diop
14Dário Essugo
19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
10G. Reyna
80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
No reported absences
Strasbourg
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Strasbourg · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Toulouse wins2 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 3 May 2026Strasbourg1–2Toulouse
- 6 Dec 2025Toulouse1–0Strasbourg
- 16 Mar 2025Strasbourg2–1Toulouse
- 12 Jan 2025Toulouse1–2Strasbourg
- 7 Apr 2024Toulouse0–0Strasbourg
- 27 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–0Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.86 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 86% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 4.10 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 7.80 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.29 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Strasbourg7 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
