Estac Troyes
Attack+22%
Defense risk−16%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Le Mans are the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estac Troyes. Estac Troyes have 7.2 days of rest, Le Mans 6.1 and have to travel 290 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel290 kmRest days7.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Estac Troyes34%
Draw26%
Le Mans39%
Estac Troyes30%
Draw27%
Le Mans43%
Estac Troyes34%
Draw26%
Le Mans39%
Estac Troyes28%
Draw25%
Le Mans47%
Estac Troyes35%
Draw25%
Le Mans40%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Troyes)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 23%
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Le Mans. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Le Mans
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Estac Troyes
5
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row -
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
Team strength
Estac TroyesLe Mans
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
12
AttackIn forecast
27
19
DefenceIn forecast
21
7
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLe Mans
Attack+27%
Defense risk−36%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Estac TroyesLe Mans
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
43%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.29
ShotsContext
10.14
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
21%
On target shareContext
38%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
73%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.43
Shots allowedContext
16.57
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
3.00
BlocksContext
3.43
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
55%
Save rateContext
58%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
359
PassesContext
406
287
Accurate passesContext
325
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.52
Team ratingContext
6.60
12.29
FoulsContext
14.86
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
86%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.10
ShotsContext
10.14
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
25%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
64%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.90
Shots allowedContext
16.57
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
3.10
BlocksContext
3.43
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
63%
Save rateContext
58%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
351
PassesContext
406
279
Accurate passesContext
325
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.60
11.10
FoulsContext
14.86
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
LLLLL
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Le Mans
DDWLL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel290 km504 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Le Mans |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 290 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,121 km | 504 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Last XI · not confirmed
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Le Mans
Last XI · not confirmed
98N. Kocik(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
19D. Sidibé
29Lucas Bretelle
76Y. Larouci
10J. Vercruysse
23D. Traoré
18L. Buadés
14L. Mafouta
25D. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
No reported absences
Le Mans
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Estac Troyes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Le Mans+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Le Mans · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lorient | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.57 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.57 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Estac Troyes | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
61-75
1
5
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
