VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 36 pts · 19 played
DWWDW
1–0Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 27 pts · 19 played
WWLDW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 2.8 days of rest, SC Freiburg 2.8 and had to travel 131 km.
Away travel131 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d4 · 4
VfB Stuttgart57%
Draw22%
SC Freiburg21%
VfB Stuttgart51%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg23%
VfB Stuttgart57%
Draw22%
SC Freiburg21%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg27%
VfB Stuttgart55%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg21%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 65
Team strength
VfB StuttgartSC Freiburg
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
70
AttackIn forecast
63
58
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartSC Freiburg
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
89%
Scored inContext
79%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.11
ShotsContext
12.68
5.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.18
64%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.05
Shots allowedContext
12.32
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.47
BlocksContext
4.19
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
73%
Save rateContext
64%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
504
PassesContext
422
426
Accurate passesContext
348
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.95
FoulsContext
9.53
12.16
Fouls sufferedContext
12.16
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
15.10
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
30%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
64%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.50
BlocksContext
4.83
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
64%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
482
PassesContext
417
405
Accurate passesContext
345
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.20
FoulsContext
10.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km2,280 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
SC Freiburg
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel131 km1,354 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 48 | High · 43 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 131 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,280 km | 1,354 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
28N. Nartey
11B. El Khannouss
26D. Undav
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-1
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.22
SC Freiburg · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 2.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 2–6 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 54 · 2.00 per game | 24 of 54 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws6 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.89 – 1.67
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 13 Sep 2025SC Freiburg3–1VfB Stuttgart
- 18 Jan 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0SC Freiburg
- 24 Aug 2024SC Freiburg3–1VfB Stuttgart
- 3 Feb 2024SC Freiburg1–3VfB Stuttgart
- 2 Sep 2023VfB Stuttgart5–0SC Freiburg
- 11 Feb 2023SC Freiburg2–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 3.32 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 68% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 68% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 21% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.70 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.28 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.47 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 4.42 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 9/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 10.75 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls22.4league 21.0
Penalties0.25league 0.34
Home wins48%league 44%
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record2-4-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- W18 Oct 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–01
- W22 Sep 24H · Borussia Dortmund5–11
- L5 Nov 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
- L1 Apr 23A · Union Berlin0–31
- D24 Jan 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–23
SC Freiburg4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Apr 23A · Werder Bremen2–13
- W6 Nov 22H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- L14 Jan 22A · Borussia Dortmund1–50
- L21 Nov 21H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart19 games · scored 36 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
10
11
76-90
SC Freiburg19 games · scored 31 · conceded 32
6
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
12
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
