VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 36 pts · 19 played
DWWDW
1–0Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 27 pts · 19 played
WWLDW
VfB Stuttgart57.2%fair odds 1.75
Draw22.0%fair odds 4.54
SC Freiburg20.8%fair odds 4.80
Expected goals2.07 – 1.18total 3.25
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · SC Freiburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns SC Freiburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%10.02
- 2–19.8%10.21
- 2–08.3%12.09
- 1–07.5%13.33
- 3–16.7%14.82
- 2–25.8%17.23
- 3–05.7%17.55
- 1–25.6%17.81
- 0–04.4%22.85
- 0–14.1%24.47
Winning margin
17.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 5.72
17.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.73
22.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.50
22.0%
Draw
fair 4.54
12.5%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 7.99
5.7%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 17.43
2.6%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 39.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
SC Freiburg goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 57.2% | 55.1% | +2.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 23.7% | -1.7 pp |
| SC Freiburg win | 20.8% | 21.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 56.5% | +6.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.1% | 56.4% | +4.7 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.07 | 1.86 | +0.20 |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.18 | 1.08 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win57.2%1.75
- Draw22.0%4.54
- SC Freiburg win20.8%4.80
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw79.2%1.26
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or SC Freiburg78.0%1.28
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw42.8%2.33
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart73.3%1.36
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg26.7%3.75
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.584.0%1.19
- Over 2.563.1%1.59
- Over 3.540.9%2.45
- Over 4.522.9%4.38
- Under 1.516.0%6.26
- Under 2.536.9%2.71
- Under 3.559.1%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes61.1%1.64
- No38.9%2.57
- Yes and over 2.551.1%1.96
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes31.0%3.23
- Draw and yes17.6%5.67
- SC Freiburg win and yes12.5%7.98
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.587.3%1.15
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.561.2%1.63
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.534.1%2.93
- SC Freiburg over 0.569.4%1.44
- SC Freiburg over 1.533.2%3.01
- SC Freiburg over 2.511.7%8.53
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet30.6%3.27
- SC Freiburg clean sheet12.7%7.90
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil26.2%3.82
- SC Freiburg win to nil8.3%12.07
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.535.0%2.86
- VfB Stuttgart −2.517.5%5.72
- SC Freiburg +1.565.0%1.54
- SC Freiburg +2.582.5%1.21
- SC Freiburg −1.58.3%12.05
- VfB Stuttgart +1.591.7%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored177
Favourite won55.9%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right63.3%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 55.1% | 59.2% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.7% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 157 of 177 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5592 | 0.5560 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.2% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 57.3% | 57.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 157 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 177 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.