Bundesliga Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 14:30 MHPArena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 4th · 43 pts · 23 played
4–0Full time
VfL Wolfsburg 17th · 20 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfB Stuttgart72.4%fair odds 1.38
Draw16.3%fair odds 6.12
VfL Wolfsburg11.3%fair odds 8.84
Expected goals2.64 – 0.98total 3.63
Likeliest score2–09.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfB Stuttgart

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfB Stuttgart ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg →0123456+
03.02.21.30.40.10.00.0
16.77.33.41.10.30.10.0
29.39.14.51.50.40.10.0
38.28.14.01.30.30.10.0
45.45.32.60.90.20.00.0
52.92.81.40.50.10.00.0
6+2.01.90.90.30.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–09.3%10.77
  • 2–19.1%10.94
  • 3–08.2%12.22
  • 3–18.1%12.41
  • 1–17.3%13.74
  • 1–06.7%15.03
  • 4–05.4%18.48
  • 4–15.3%18.78
  • 2–24.5%22.24
  • 3–24.0%25.22

Winning margin

31.1% VfB Stuttgart by 3+ fair 3.21
20.5% VfB Stuttgart by 2 fair 4.89
20.7% VfB Stuttgart by 1 fair 4.82
16.3% Draw fair 6.12
7.5% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 13.35
2.8% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 35.27
1.0% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 101.29

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
30%5+

VfB Stuttgart goals

7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfB Stuttgart win 72.4% 69.7% +2.7 pp
Draw 16.3% 18.2% -1.8 pp
VfL Wolfsburg win 11.3% 12.2% -0.9 pp
Over 2.5 70.2% 64.1% +6.1 pp
Both teams score 58.5% 54.8% +3.7 pp
Expected goals VfB Stuttgart 2.64 2.39 +0.25
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg 0.98 0.91 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfB Stuttgart win72.4%1.38
  • Draw16.3%6.12
  • VfL Wolfsburg win11.3%8.84
  • Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw88.7%1.13
  • Double chance VfB Stuttgart or VfL Wolfsburg83.7%1.20
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw27.6%3.62
  • Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart86.5%1.16
  • Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg13.5%7.40

Goals

  • Over 0.597.0%1.03
  • Over 1.588.1%1.14
  • Over 2.570.2%1.42
  • Over 3.549.1%2.04
  • Over 4.529.9%3.34
  • Under 1.511.9%8.39
  • Under 2.529.8%3.36
  • Under 3.550.9%1.96

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.5%1.71
  • No41.5%2.41
  • Yes and over 2.551.3%1.95
  • VfB Stuttgart win and yes38.0%2.63
  • Draw and yes13.3%7.51
  • VfL Wolfsburg win and yes7.2%13.83

Team goals

  • VfB Stuttgart over 0.592.9%1.08
  • VfB Stuttgart over 1.574.1%1.35
  • VfB Stuttgart over 2.549.3%2.03
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 0.562.6%1.60
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 1.525.8%3.87
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 2.57.7%12.91
  • VfB Stuttgart clean sheet37.4%2.68
  • VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet7.1%14.08
  • VfB Stuttgart win to nil34.3%2.91
  • VfL Wolfsburg win to nil4.1%24.49

Handicap

  • VfB Stuttgart −1.551.6%1.94
  • VfB Stuttgart −2.531.1%3.21
  • VfL Wolfsburg +1.548.4%2.07
  • VfL Wolfsburg +2.568.9%1.45
  • VfL Wolfsburg −1.53.8%26.16
  • VfB Stuttgart +1.596.2%1.04

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored212 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.1% 1X2 Brier0.562 Over 2.5 called right62.3% BTTS called right57.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2938.2%41.4%
40–50%6345.1%44.4%
50–60%6055.3%60.0%
60–70%3464.5%70.6%
70–80%1774.3%76.5%
80%+985.8%77.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 212 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 212 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.