VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 43 pts · 23 played
WWLWD
4–0Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 20 pts · 23 played
LLLDL
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 2.9 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 8 and had to travel 420 km.
Away travel420 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2
VfB Stuttgart72%
Draw16%
VfL Wolfsburg11%
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg15%
VfB Stuttgart70%
Draw17%
VfL Wolfsburg12%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg16%
VfB Stuttgart70%
Draw18%
VfL Wolfsburg12%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 43
Team strength
VfB StuttgartVfL Wolfsburg
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
70
AttackIn forecast
50
58
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartVfL Wolfsburg
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
91%
Scored inContext
83%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
14.70
ShotsContext
11.26
5.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
39%
On target shareContext
35%
9.52
Shots in the boxContext
6.96
65%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.92
11.96
Shots allowedContext
14.74
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.35
BlocksContext
4.32
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
72%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
512
PassesContext
407
433
Accurate passesContext
328
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.96
FoulsContext
10.65
11.87
Fouls sufferedContext
9.43
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.10
ShotsContext
10.90
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
35%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
64%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.10
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.56
BlocksContext
4.60
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
64%
Save rateContext
59%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
533
PassesContext
426
451
Accurate passesContext
346
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.75
8.40
FoulsContext
10.70
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,549 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel420 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 420 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,549 km | 325 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
14L. Jaquez
29Finn Jeltsch
10C. Führich
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
26D. Undav
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
6J. Belocian
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
26S. Kumbedi
31Y. Gerhardt
24C. Eriksen
37Pharell Hensel
10L. Majer
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-1
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.09
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 2.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 3–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 1–8 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 40 of 66 · 1.82 per game | 20 of 66 · 0.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.89 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 18 Oct 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 15 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 28 Sep 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–2VfB Stuttgart
- 2 Mar 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–3VfB Stuttgart
- 7 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart3–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 18 Mar 2023VfB Stuttgart0–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.57 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 78% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.05 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.18 | 7.27 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 11.00 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.74 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.40 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.79
Red cards0.07league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls25.1league 20.7
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins49%league 46%
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 May 24A · FC Augsburg1–02
- D24 Feb 24H · 1.FC Köln1–11
- D2 Apr 22A · Arminia Bielefeld1–15
- W19 Mar 22H · FC Augsburg3–22
- L31 Oct 21A · FC Augsburg1–44
VfL Wolfsburg3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Dec 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–11
- D13 Jan 24A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- W5 Mar 22H · Union Berlin1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart23 games · scored 44 · conceded 32
3
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
10
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
15
13
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg23 games · scored 33 · conceded 49
8
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
9
61-75
5
15
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
4
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
