VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 56 pts · 30 played
WWLWL
1–1Full time
Werder Bremen
15th · 31 pts · 30 played
LWLLW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 6.9 days of rest, Werder Bremen 8 and had to travel 478 km.
Away travel478 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart68%
Draw18%
Werder Bremen15%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen17%
VfB Stuttgart67%
Draw18%
Werder Bremen15%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen20%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen15%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 70
Team strength
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
70
AttackIn forecast
56
58
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
63%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.03
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.28
40%
On target shareContext
32%
9.73
Shots in the boxContext
8.28
66%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.85
12.17
Shots allowedContext
13.07
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.07
3.34
BlocksContext
3.75
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
70%
Save rateContext
64%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
514
PassesContext
474
433
Accurate passesContext
392
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.47
FoulsContext
9.97
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.93
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.90
ShotsContext
13.40
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
41%
On target shareContext
33%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
2.88
BlocksContext
3.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
521
PassesContext
491
436
Accurate passesContext
408
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.30
FoulsContext
10.30
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel478 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 478 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 382 km | 540 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
23D. Zagadou
14L. Jaquez
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
8Tiago Tomás
26D. Undav
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
4N. Stark
5A. Pieper
2O. Deman
14S. Lynen
18Cameron Puertas
3Y. Sugawara
20R. Schmid
6J. Stage
19J. Milošević
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.93
Werder Bremen · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-9
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 2–4 AL 0–5 H | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–0 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 53 of 87 · 1.83 per game | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws3 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 14 Dec 2025Werder Bremen0–4VfB Stuttgart
- 13 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Werder Bremen
- 30 Nov 2024Werder Bremen2–2VfB Stuttgart
- 21 Apr 2024Werder Bremen2–1VfB Stuttgart
- 2 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart2–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart0–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 3.47 | 2.93 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 57% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 47% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.41 | 10.47 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 16/29 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.03 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 13/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.78 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.30 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.73
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 20.3
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins39%league 44%
VfB Stuttgart9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D23 Feb 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–10
- W15 Dec 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–13
- D21 Apr 23A · FC Augsburg1–13
- L4 Mar 23H · Bayern München1–20
- W15 Oct 22H · VfL Bochum4–10
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Jan 25A · Borussia Dortmund2–24
- L7 Oct 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–35
- L6 May 23H · Bayern München1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart30 games · scored 62 · conceded 42
4
4
0-15
11
4
16-30
13
11
31-45
8
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
21
16
76-90
Werder Bremen30 games · scored 35 · conceded 53
2
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
7
12
61-75
14
11
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
