VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 56 pts · 30 played
WWLWL
1–1Full time
Werder Bremen
15th · 31 pts · 30 played
LWLLW
VfB Stuttgart67.6%fair odds 1.48
Draw17.8%fair odds 5.62
Werder Bremen14.6%fair odds 6.84
Expected goals2.56 – 1.14total 3.70
Likeliest score2–19.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%10.83
- 2–08.1%12.37
- 3–17.9%12.69
- 1–17.6%13.16
- 3–06.9%14.50
- 1–05.9%16.85
- 2–25.3%18.96
- 4–15.0%19.84
- 3–24.5%22.22
- 4–04.4%22.66
Winning margin
27.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 3.68
19.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.13
20.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.77
17.8%
Draw
fair 5.62
9.1%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 10.94
3.9%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 25.77
1.6%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 62.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
8%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
Werder Bremen goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 67.6% | 65.0% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 17.8% | 19.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 14.6% | 15.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 71.5% | 64.2% | +7.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 63.2% | 58.1% | +5.1 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.56 | 2.28 | +0.28 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.14 | 1.03 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win67.6%1.48
- Draw17.8%5.62
- Werder Bremen win14.6%6.84
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw85.4%1.17
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Werder Bremen82.2%1.22
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw32.4%3.09
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart82.2%1.22
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen17.8%5.62
Goals
- Over 0.597.1%1.03
- Over 1.588.8%1.13
- Over 2.571.5%1.40
- Over 3.550.6%1.98
- Over 4.531.3%3.19
- Under 1.511.2%8.91
- Under 2.528.5%3.51
- Under 3.549.4%2.03
Both teams to score
- Yes63.2%1.58
- No36.8%2.72
- Yes and over 2.555.6%1.80
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes38.5%2.59
- Draw and yes14.9%6.69
- Werder Bremen win and yes9.7%10.27
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.592.3%1.08
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.572.5%1.38
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.547.1%2.12
- Werder Bremen over 0.568.1%1.47
- Werder Bremen over 1.531.6%3.16
- Werder Bremen over 2.510.8%9.23
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet31.9%3.13
- Werder Bremen clean sheet7.7%12.93
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil29.1%3.44
- Werder Bremen win to nil4.9%20.47
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.546.6%2.14
- VfB Stuttgart −2.527.2%3.68
- Werder Bremen +1.553.4%1.87
- Werder Bremen +2.572.8%1.37
- Werder Bremen −1.55.5%18.24
- VfB Stuttgart +1.594.5%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored277
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right61.4%
BTTS called right58.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.2% | 35.1% |
| 40–50% | 87 | 45.0% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 55.1% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 64.7% | 70.7% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 230 of 277 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5484 | 0.5481 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 230 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 277 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.