Wolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Wolves had 5.3 days of rest, Aston Villa 6.2 and had to travel 19 km.
Away travel19 kmRest days5.3 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Wolves22%
Draw23%
Aston Villa55%
Wolves16%
Draw22%
Aston Villa61%
Wolves21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa55%
Wolves16%
Draw21%
Aston Villa62%
Wolves22%
Draw25%
Aston Villa53%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 141
Team strength
Wolves
Aston Villa
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
41
AttackIn forecast
83
46
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
WolvesAston Villa
0.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
46%
Scored inContext
70%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.25
ShotsContext
12.67
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
36%
On target shareContext
34%
5.96
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
61%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.95
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.79
Shots allowedContext
12.81
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.54
BlocksContext
3.96
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
64%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
374
PassesContext
448
298
Accurate passesContext
381
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.46
FoulsContext
9.85
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
13.22
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.30
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
33%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
57%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.88
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
69%
Save rateContext
84%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
383
PassesContext
476
313
Accurate passesContext
405
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.60
FoulsContext
9.80
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Wolves
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel19 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Wolves |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 19 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 363 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
24Toti Gomes
4S. Bueno
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
8João Gomes
7André
38J. Tchatchoua
36Mateus Mané
27J. Bellegarde
9A. Armstrong
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
21Douglas Luiz
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Wolves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Wolves+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Wolves · Home
0.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-10
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 2.14
Aston Villa · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Wolves | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Fulham | L 0–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Burnley | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Leeds | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 81 · 0.37 per game | 48 of 78 · 1.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Wolves wins3 draws3 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.10
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 30 Nov 2025Aston Villa1–0Wolves
- 1 Feb 2025Wolves2–0Aston Villa
- 21 Sep 2024Aston Villa3–1Wolves
- 30 Mar 2024Aston Villa2–0Wolves
- 8 Oct 2023Wolves1–1Aston Villa
- 6 May 2023Wolves1–0Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Wolves | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.64 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.44 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 52% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 30% | |
| Games | 28 | 27 |
| Wolves | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.90 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Wolves | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.23 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 10.15 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 19/26 | 74% 20/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 17/26 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.00 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Wolves | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.40 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 141 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.74
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 21.4
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins40%league 42%
Wolves12 with this referee
Record5-3-4
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D25 May 25H · Brentford1–12
- L4 May 24A · Manchester City1–54
- D13 Apr 24A · Nottingham Forest2–23
- D22 Jan 24A · Brighton0–04
- W30 Sep 23H · Manchester City2–15
Aston Villa16 with this referee
Record6-4-6
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W10 Jan 26A · Tottenham2–12
- D16 Aug 25H · Newcastle0–02
- L22 Apr 25A · Manchester City1–23
- D30 Dec 24H · Brighton2–22
- L3 Nov 24A · Tottenham1–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Wolves28 games · scored 18 · conceded 51
2
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
12
61-75
3
10
76-90
Aston Villa27 games · scored 38 · conceded 28
1
6
0-15
5
3
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
11
4
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
