Wolves vs West Ham – 3 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 3 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 3 pts · 19 played LLLLD

3–0Full time

West Ham 18th · 14 pts · 19 played DLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

West Ham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 38). Wolves had 3.8 days of rest, West Ham 3.8 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Wolves35%

Draw27%

West Ham39%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.43

Wolves35%

Draw27%

West Ham38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Wolves35%

Draw27%

West Ham38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.38

Wolves28%

Draw26%

West Ham46%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.61

Wolves35%

Draw27%

West Ham39%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.42

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 113

Team strength

Wolves

West Ham

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

41 AttackIn forecast 68

46 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

West Ham

0.58 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

47% Scored inContext 63%

0% Clean sheetsContext 5%

8.79 ShotsContext 10.00

3.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.94

33% On target shareContext 35%

5.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.18

63% Box shareContext 69%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.92 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.74 Shots allowedContext 15.47

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.42

4.71 BlocksContext 4.72

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

62% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 42%

386 PassesContext 369

308 Accurate passesContext 293

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.21 FoulsContext 10.68

9.74 Fouls sufferedContext 11.21

2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

40% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

7.00 ShotsContext 10.50

2.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

31% On target shareContext 35%

4.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

61% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 13%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.40

15.40 Shots allowedContext 16.10

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

5.44 BlocksContext 5.22

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

64% Save rateContext 77%

41% PossessionIn forecast 37%

355 PassesContext 337

281 Accurate passesContext 261

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.78

15.00 FoulsContext 10.60

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km416 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

West Ham

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel182 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	West Ham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	416 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 36Mateus Mané 8João Gomes 10J. Arias 38J. Tchatchoua

11H. Hwang 14T. Arokodare

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

West Ham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23A. Areola(G)

30O. Scarles 3M. Kilman 15K. Mavropanos 2K. Walker-Peters

32F. Potts 27S. Magassa

7C. Summerville 18Mateus Fernandes 20J. Bowen

9C. Wilson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

West Ham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves-0.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
West Ham+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-8
Scored: 0.78
Conceded: 2.56

West Ham · Away 0.78points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	West Ham
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	D 1–1 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
Brentford	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 2–3 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	L 1–5 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 3–2 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 H
Leeds	L 1–3 H	L 1–2 A
Newcastle	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Everton	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Manchester City	L 0–4 H	L 0–3 A
Points	3 of 57 · 0.16 per game	14 of 57 · 0.74 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Wolves wins0 draws7 West Ham wins

Goals per game0.70 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 40%

1 Apr 2025Wolves1–0West Ham
9 Dec 2024West Ham2–1Wolves
6 Apr 2024Wolves1–2West Ham
17 Dec 2023West Ham3–0Wolves
14 Jan 2023Wolves1–0West Ham
1 Oct 2022West Ham2–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.58	1.11
Conceded per game	2.11	2.00
Match goals	2.68	3.11	2.78
Over 1.5	79%	95%
Over 2.5	47%	63%	53%
Over 3.5	26%	32%
Both teams scored	47%	58%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	5%
Failed to score	53%	37%
Games	19	19

	Wolves	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	1.40
Conceded per game	2.10	1.80
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.78
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.50
Corners conceded	6.71	6.28
Match total	9.71	11.78	9.85
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	83% 15/18
Over 9.5	65% 11/17	72% 13/18
Over 10.5	41% 7/17	67% 12/18
Cards
Cards	2.21	1.74
Opponent cards	1.42	1.79
Match total	3.63	3.53	3.83
Over 3.5	58% 11/19	47% 9/19
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	26% 5/19

	Wolves	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	2.33	5.56
Corners conceded	7.44	5.44
Match total	9.77	11.00	9.85
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	1.30	2.20
Match total	3.90	4.00	3.83
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.12league 3.69

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls21.5league 21.4

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins50%league 46%

Wolves12 with this referee

Record4-2-6 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 5

L2 May 25A · Manchester City0–10
W5 Apr 25A · Ipswich2–12
L25 Feb 25H · Fulham1–21
L6 Jan 25H · Nottingham Forest0–31
L30 Nov 24H · Bournemouth2–45

West Ham11 with this referee

Record3-6-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D26 Jan 25A · Aston Villa1–13
L2 Nov 24A · Nottingham Forest0–34
D8 Oct 23H · Newcastle2–23
D12 Aug 23A · Bournemouth1–14
W21 May 23H · Leeds3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.