FSV Mainz 05

5th · Bundesliga · 10 points · Matches played: 6

4 points behind Bayern München · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

+7.6 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +2.9 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 55.1+7.6
World Rank 67th Global, by Elo
Bundesliga Rank 7th L90 Strength
Last FC Schalke 04A xG 1.5–0.3 1–0 Next Werder BremenH 56%

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Our take

Mid-table strength, top-table form.

FSV Mainz 05 lean on a top-third defence, with a mid-table attack behind it. Across the 6 league matches with forecasts, their points total is close to our pre-match expectations. D. Kohr and P. Nebel are out, and The toughest of the next 3 matches is the visit of Bayern München.

Bundesliga · 6 games. Their chance balance is better than the scorelines suggest. They are scoring more goals than their chances suggest. They are conceding more goals than expected; goalkeeping or opponents' finishing may contribute, but these figures do not establish the cause.

They are among the busiest attacks in the league, with 18 shots a game. They play a physical game, among the most fouls in the league. Unusually, they travel better than they host: 3.0 points per game away against 0.3 at home.

  • Top 4 9% · Relegation <1%Likely 7th · 49 projected points
  • Next 3: about 4 of 9 points Toughest vs Bayern München · , 12% to win
  • 3 key players outD. Kohr, P. Nebel · 17% of squad weight missing · Last match: 17 Oct
  • 10 pts vs 9.2 expected+0.8 vs pre-match expectations · 6 matches with forecasts

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FSV Mainz 05. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals for this club in each category.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses observed Playing style averages; window size is not xG coverage and the two metrics can have different denominators. Points minus xPts uses the same covered current-league matches and stored forecasts as Club strength, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking
The full picture, with the evidence behind every signal.View all Club insights →

Season

League position and season results.

Overview

2026-2027
All competitions6 Played
Bundesliga10 pts1.67 PPG6 games 5th
50.0%Win %
Wins3
Draws1
Losses2

Expected metrics · 6 of 6 matches covered

Goals For
142.33 / game
xG 12.83 1.17 more goals than expected. vs 14 goals
Goals Against
101.67 / game
xGA 8.11 1.89 more conceded than expected. vs 10 conceded
Goal Difference
+4+0.67 / game
xGD +4.72 Goal difference is 0.72 lower than expected. vs +4 GD
Clean Sheets
350% of games

Season totals cover all competitions and stages. Positions and points refer to each competition table.

Competition standings

There is no combined table across competitions. View each competition separately.

Bundesliga →

Squad 37 players · this season, all competitions · 6 out

Absences reported for the last match: 17 Oct 2026

Top scorer
P. Tietz5 goals
Most assists
S. Becker3 assists
Best rated
A. Caci7.48 avg rating
Most minutes
P. Tietz540 min
Key to the model
P. TietzStarter · weight 1.92
PlayerAgeAppsMinGARatingModel role
Goalkeepers
A. Schwolow 34 4 (4) 360 0 0 6.87 starter
R. Zentner injured 31 2 (2) 180 0 0 6.80 rotation
Louis Babatz — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
L. Gauer 21 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
M. Kinzig — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Defenders
P. Mwene 32 6 (6) 524 1 1 6.82 starter
F. Gruber 24 5 (5) 450 0 0 6.76 starter
S. Posch 29 5 (5) 448 0 0 6.76 starter
A. Caci 29 6 (6) 441 2 2 7.48 starter
K. Potulski 19 6 (5) 440 0 0 6.51 rotation
D. da Costa 33 6 (2) 262 1 0 6.98 starter
S. Widmer injured 33 2 (0) 17 0 0 7.01 starter
L. Maloney 27 4 (0) 11 0 0 6.29 rotation
S. Bell 35 0 (0) 0 0 0 — rotation
A. Hanche-Olsen 29 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Midfielders
N. Amiri 29 6 (6) 531 0 1 6.91 core
K. Sano 25 6 (6) 529 0 2 6.89 starter
J. Lee 34 6 (5) 363 0 1 6.51 starter
E. Martel 24 3 (1) 99 1 0 6.70 rotation
D. Kohr injured 32 1 (1) 80 0 0 7.70 starter
O. Ruoppi injured 20 3 (0) 29 0 1 6.65 depth
?R. Nakuzola — 2 (0) 18 0 0 7.00 depth
P. Nebel injured 24 1 (0) 14 0 0 6.83 starter
H. Hong 27 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Daniel Imafidon — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Sota Kawasaki 25 0 (0) 0 0 0 — rotation
P. Schulz — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
T. Yamazaki — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
W. Bøving 23 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Forwards
P. Tietz 29 6 (6) 540 5 0 7.26 starter
S. Becker 31 6 (6) 439 2 3 7.28 starter
R. Königsdörffer 25 6 (0) 136 1 0 6.63 rotation
B. Hollerbach 25 2 (0) 29 1 0 6.73 rotation
M. Richter 28 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
A. Haidara — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
F. Moreno Fell — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
S. Katompa Mvumpa injured 28 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —

Stats are this season in all competitions. Model role is how much the availability model weighs each player before the game with Werder Bremen: core, starter, rotation or depth, from several seasons of minutes and ratings.

Performance

Strength, recent form and playing style.

Strength Bundesliga · 18 clubs

L90 Strength7th of 18
55 Elo 1677 · World #67
Current Strength
55 With absences before 24 Oct: +0 Elo
Attack7th of 18
68 Scores 1.85 per match against an average top-five side
Defence6th of 18
56 Concedes 1.46 per match against an average top-five side

In forecast League average

L90 Strength comes from Elo; Attack and Defence from goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG) and shots on target, all on fixed 0–100 scales shared by every league. These are the numbers the forecast uses.

Strong at both ends Defence first Attack first Struggling Attack → Defence → Bayern München: attack 96, defence 90, L90 Strength 94 Borussia Dortmund: attack 69, defence 80, L90 Strength 81 SC Freiburg: attack 63, defence 73, L90 Strength 64 Bayer Leverkusen: attack 87, defence 79, L90 Strength 79 FSV Mainz 05: attack 68, defence 56, L90 Strength 55 SV Elversberg: attack 44, defence 37, L90 Strength 42 RB Leipzig: attack 76, defence 53, L90 Strength 68 Werder Bremen: attack 56, defence 45, L90 Strength 43 Hamburger SV: attack 37, defence 43, L90 Strength 40 FC Augsburg: attack 72, defence 23, L90 Strength 50 Eintracht Frankfurt: attack 54, defence 37, L90 Strength 48 1.FC Köln: attack 36, defence 36, L90 Strength 34 VfB Stuttgart: attack 70, defence 58, L90 Strength 68 1899 Hoffenheim: attack 46, defence 43, L90 Strength 49 FC Schalke 04: attack 33, defence 50, L90 Strength 46 SC Paderborn 07: attack 34, defence 33, L90 Strength 38 Union Berlin: attack 42, defence 41, L90 Strength 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach: attack 34, defence 21, L90 Strength 36
Every Bundesliga club on the Attack and Defence scales. Dashed lines are the league average. Tap a crest to open that club.

Form last 5 for the index · last 6 listed

70
Form index · 6th of 18 in league
Points, last 5
9
Median top-5 club
6.6
Own forecasts
7.3 +1.8
Table5th L90 Strength7th Form6th

Table position in line with their strength.

Form compares points with what a median top-five club (L90 Strength 50) would take from the same fixtures, so wins over strong sides count for more; 50 is a typical run. "Own forecasts" is the gap to this club's pre-match expectations. Form is context: in our tests it did not improve the forecast.

  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts
  • D29 AugH · SC Paderborn 070–01.9 xPts

Trends last 6, all competitions

Scored 5/6
Clean sheet 3/6
Conceded 2+ 3/6
Over 2.5 4/6
Both teams scored 3/6

Playing style vs Bundesliga average

MAILeagueRank
Goals scored 2.33 1.84 6th
Goals conceded 1.67 1.84 7th
xG 2.14 1.75 4th
xG allowed 1.35 1.75 5th
Scored in 83% 76% 6th
Clean sheets 50% 24% 2nd
MAILeagueRank
Shots 17.83 15.55 3rd
Shots on target 6.00 5.77 7th
On target share 34% 35% 11th
Box share 76% 68% 2nd
Conversion 13% 12% 8th
MAILeagueRank
Shots allowed 12.50 15.55 5th
On target allowed 4.60 5.71 6th
Blocks 4.17 4.49 11th
Save rate 57% 66% 15th
MAILeagueRank
Possession 51% 50% 9th
Passes 446 455 9th
Pass accuracy 80% 81% 13th
MAILeagueRank
Fouls 13.83 11.43 16th
Fouls suffered 11.17 11.44 9th
Yellow cards 2.33 1.71 14th
Red cards 0.00 0.02 1st
This league season, per match · 6 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.
MAILeagueRank
Goals scored 2.20 1.84 6th
Goals conceded 1.80 1.74 8th
xG 2.21 1.71 3rd
xG allowed 1.59 1.62 8th
Scored in 90% 80% 2nd
Clean sheets 40% 24% 2nd
MAILeagueRank
Shots 17.10 14.87 3rd
Shots on target 6.20 5.55 4th
On target share 36% 36% 10th
Box share 75% 67% 2nd
Conversion 13% 12% 6th
MAILeagueRank
Shots allowed 12.50 14.13 5th
On target allowed 5.00 5.23 9th
Blocks 3.30 4.08 14th
Save rate 58% 66% 16th
MAILeagueRank
Possession 48% 51% 10th
Passes 420 455 12th
Pass accuracy 80% 82% 13th
MAILeagueRank
Fouls 12.80 10.89 17th
Fouls suffered 10.30 10.68 11th
Yellow cards 1.90 1.70 12th
Red cards 0.00 0.02 1st
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.

Home and away this league season

Home0.33pts per game0-1-2 · 1.3–2.3 goals · 3 games
Away3.00pts per game3-0-0 · 3.3–1.0 goals · 3 games

Goal timing this league season · 6 games

4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, per 15 minutes

In forecastVia Att/DefContextLeague average

Possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Goals, xG and shots on target feed the Attack and Defence ratings. The rest describes how the team plays and does not change the forecast.

Team rankings Bundesliga · 6 games · rank of 18

Attack

GF 14 6th / 18
GF/G 2.33 6th / 18
xG/G 2.14 4th / 18
G − xG +0.19 7th / 18

Defence

GA 10 7th / 18
GA/G 1.67 7th / 18
xGA/G 1.35 5th / 18
xGA − GA -0.32 11th / 18

Overall

Pts 10 5th / 18
xPts 9.2 6th / 18
PPG 1.67 5th / 18
TR 6.94 9th / 18
GD +4 6th / 18
xGD +4.7 5th / 18
W 3 5th / 18
L 2 6th / 18

Scorelines

  • 0–0×1
  • 5–0×1
  • 1–3×1
  • 4–3×1
  • 3–4×1
  • 1–0×1

Goals per game both teams

17% 0
17% 1
0% 2
0% 3
17% 4
50% 5+

Totals club · league

Over 1.5
67%81%
Over 2.5
67%74%
Over 3.5
67%56%
Both scored
50%59%
Clean sheet
50%24%
Failed to score
17%24%
ClubLeague average

This league season only. xPts adds up our pre-match win and draw chances (pure EloLambda, the same numbers as Form). xG and TR come from match data and describe the season so far; none of these rankings change the forecast directly.