FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

VS— Compare

Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played WDWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 are slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 43). FSV Mainz 05 have 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7 and have to travel 346 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel346 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw20%

Werder Bremen23%

Expected goals 2.33 – 1.48

FSV Mainz 0551%

Draw25%

Werder Bremen24%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.07

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw20%

Werder Bremen23%

Expected goals 2.33 – 1.48

FSV Mainz 0547%

Draw22%

Werder Bremen31%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.66

FSV Mainz 0555%

Draw21%

Werder Bremen23%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.38

Over 2.5 73% Both score 70% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 31%
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Werder Bremen

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

68 AttackIn forecast 56

56 DefenceIn forecast 45

70 Form indexContext 71

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack+6%

Defense risk−4%

Werder Bremen

Attack−4%

Defense risk+8%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Werder Bremen

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

83% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.83 ShotsContext 14.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83

34% On target shareContext 49%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.67

76% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 14%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.33

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.17 BlocksContext 4.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

57% Save rateContext 61%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

446 PassesContext 476

357 Accurate passesContext 400

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.83 FoulsContext 12.00

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.10 ShotsContext 12.70

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 42%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

75% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.70

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.30 BlocksContext 4.40

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

58% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

420 PassesContext 458

337 Accurate passesContext 380

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.80 FoulsContext 10.30

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km377 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Werder Bremen WDWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel346 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	346 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	377 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct

1K. Hein(G)

2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur

44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis

17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi

10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 No reported absences

Werder Bremen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Werder Bremen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen
SC Paderborn 07	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 FSV Mainz 05 wins2 draws4 Werder Bremen wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.38 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets25% · 38%

15 Mar 2026Werder Bremen0–2FSV Mainz 05
1 Nov 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen1–0FSV Mainz 05
15 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 051–2Werder Bremen
3 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 050–1Werder Bremen
2 Sep 2023Werder Bremen4–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	2.00
Match goals	4.00	4.00	3.80
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	83%	73%
Over 3.5	67%	83%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	70%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.90
Match goals	4.00	3.30	3.80
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	73%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	70%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	3.67
Corners conceded	4.00	5.83
Match total	8.83	9.50	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.17
Opponent cards	2.00	1.33
Match total	4.33	2.50	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	FSV Mainz 05	Werder Bremen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.90
Corners conceded	4.90	6.40
Match total	9.70	10.30	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	1.00
Match total	3.80	2.20	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.